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Shai is coming off a clutch 35-point performance in Game 4, BUT despite the scoring spike, his all-around production has taken a major step back—and that’s what this number is all about. For the first time all playoffs, he failed to record a single assist, a result of OKC running him off-ball for long stretches. That shift in role didn’t just impact assists—it also slowed the Thunder’s offensive rhythm, forcing SGA to operate more as a pure scorer rather than a playmaker. And it’s showing up in the trends: Shai has gone UNDER 49.5 in 4 of 4 games this series and in 18 of his last 20 overall, averaging just 42.3 PRA in that span. The matchup only makes things harder—Indiana is locking down lead guards, allowing the FEWEST 3PA to starting PGs (4.6 per game) and the 5TH-FEWEST FTAs (3.5 per game) over the last 20. That’s a direct hit to two of Shai’s most efficient scoring routes. When your role shrinks and your matchup suppresses both deep shots and foul line volume, you’re fighting uphill to hit this number. SO even after a strong scoring night, the ceiling just isn’t high enough—this pick is a LOCK for less than.

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Turner was a non-factor in Game 4, BUT context matters—he came in under the weather, missed practice the day before, and still logged decent minutes despite clearly being off his game. When healthy, his ceiling has been rock-solid: he’s cleared this number in 2 of 4 games this series, and both of those came on the road, where he’ll be again for Game 5. In those two road games, he averaged 24 PRA, and that lines up with one of the most favorable big-man matchups in the Finals. OKC gives up the MOST points per game to opposing centers this season (14.2 PPG to starters), ranking in the 100TH percentile—no other starter at the 5-spot has been scored on more. Turner also adds serious upside from beyond the arc, ranking in the 84TH percentile in threes made with 2.0 per game, which becomes even more relevant since OKC allows the 8TH-MOST 3PA at home over the last 15. Add in Indiana’s pace and firepower—this team ranks as the 3RD-HIGHEST scoring road offense over the last 15 games (121.1 PPG)—and Turner’s volume and spacing role get an immediate boost. Also, Indy is playing at the 9th-fastest tempo this year and OKC at the 4th-fastest AT HOME. SO with a bounce-back spot, matchup-driven upside, and elite road splits, this number is WAY too low.

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Jalen’s coming off a strong 27-point outing in Game 4, BUT that was on the road—and his production has taken a hit at home throughout this series. He’s gone UNDER 36.5 PRA in 3 of 4 games, and 2 unders came at home, where Game 5 is set to play out. That trend matters, especially given how Indiana’s defense is keyed into his strengths. The Pacers allow the FEWEST 3PA to opposing PFs this season (just 2.5 per game), and that’s been a major limiter for Jalen, who’s gone just 3-for-14 from deep across the entire series. Even beyond the perimeter, his efficiency is trending the wrong way—he’s shooting 47.4% from the field this year, a drop from 53.2% last season, with signs of fatigue in this matchup. The icing on the case? He’s averaging 3.0 personal fouls per game over his last 5, which is 0.8 higher than his season rate—another subtle risk that can cut into his minutes and flow. When you combine home-game drop-off, defensive matchup suppression, and efficiency regression, it’s hard to see the path to clearing this number. SO this play is built on trust in the data, not the name—this is an easy UNDER.

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Nesmith’s name won’t pop off the screen, BUT the numbers tell a different story—he’s been one of the most consistent role players in the Finals. He’s gone OVER this number in 3 of 4 games vs OKC, averaging 17.4 PRA in the series, and that production is backed by volume and matchup that most people are overlooking. He’s averaging 31.2 MINUTES per game on the road over his last 5, which is a +6.0 increase from his typical road workload—proof that the Pacers are leaning on him heavily in this series. And he’s not just logging cardio—he’s producing with efficiency. Nesmith has drilled 3.1 threes per game over his last 15 road contests, a spike of +0.9 vs his full-season road average, and he draws one of the most favorable floor-spacing matchups on the board. OKC has allowed the 8TH-MOST 3PA, 4TH-MOST FTAs, and 8TH-MOST offensive rebounds over their last 15 games at home. That’s a full-stack green light for a guy who can score, scrap, and get to the line. Add in the game environment—the Thunder play at the 4TH-FASTEST home pace, and Indiana ranks 9TH in tempo—and it’s clear we’re in for a high-possession game with tons of opportunity. SO between the minutes, pace, and matchup, this pick is as sharp as it gets.

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