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Top NBA Picks Friday (6/13)

#5

👇J. Williams: O 17.5 Pts

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jalen Williams is trending up in every way that matters—and the matchup sets him up to keep smashing. He just dropped 26 POINTS on the Pacers in Game 2 while playing 32+ minutes, and he cleared this number in 6 of his last 9l. The Thunder operate at the 6TH-FASTEST PACE in the NBA this season, and Indiana ramps things up even more at home, ranking as the 6TH-FASTEST team over their last 5 games. That pace boost adds volume, but Jalen is also creating his own shots—he’s averaged 4.6 MADE FREE THROWS over his last 5, which is a +1.2 increase from his season average. BUT what takes this even further is the offensive rebounding edge—OKC ranks as the 5TH-BEST OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING TEAM on the road over the last 5 games, which extends possessions and gives extra scoring chances when he misses. With Indiana ranking 3RD-WORST in rebounds and 8TH-HIGHEST in opponent FG%, the matchup gives him both efficiency AND second-chance upside. SO between rising usage, a massive pace environment, and a vulnerable rebounding opponent, this number is simply WAY TOO LOW.

#4

👇P. Siakam: U 34.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Siakam’s minutes and presence have been steady all postseason, but this matchup has capped his ceiling repeatedly. He’s gone UNDER this number in 3 of 3 games against the Thunder this series, averaging just 29.7 PRA in that stretch—even after a strong 21-point Game 3. The Thunder defense is one of the toughest in the league at contesting shots—OKC allows the FEWEST FG% and the FEWEST 3P% to opponents across the entire NBA this season. That’s not a one-off stat—it’s baked into their defensive scheme, and it’s worked against Siakam before. BUT it’s not just the shooting that’s limited—it’s also about possessions. Indiana ranks DEAD LAST in OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS over the last 15 games, meaning fewer putbacks and fewer assists generated off extra touches. And the positional matchup is just as brutal—OKC holds opposing starting power forwards to the 3RD-FEWEST POINTS over the last 5 road games, and Siakam is averaging fewer than 2.5 assists per game across his last 5. SO with no second chances, elite wing defense in his face, and a matchup that’s already held him below this number twice, this projection is WAY TOO HIGH.

#3

👇C. Wallace: U 9.5 Points

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Cason Wallace continues to struggle in this series, and this number just doesn’t reflect what’s happening on the floor. He’s scored LESS THAN 9.5 POINTS in 3 of 3 games vs Indiana, averaging just 5.7 in the series, and in 9 straight games. Over that span against the pacers, he’s shooting 0% from three—he hasn’t hit a single one in any of the three games—and the Pacers are a terrible team to get right against. Indiana allows the 7TH-FEWEST MADE THREES and the 8TH-LOWEST FREE THROW PERCENTAGE over the last 5 games, meaning Wallace can’t rely on either deep shooting or trips to the line to get over. BUT this is also about role. Wallace isn’t being prioritized offensively, even as a starter—his touches are limited, and he’s averaging under 8.5 points for the entire season, with very little playmaking involvement. SO with no efficiency, no volume, and a tough perimeter defense on the other side, there’s no reason this number should still be posted where it is. This is an OBVIOUS UNDER

#2

👇A. Nesmith: O 16.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Nesmith has quietly become one of the most reliable glue guys in the playoffs—and the matchup against OKC plays perfectly into his strengths. He’s gone OVER this number in 10 of his last 15 games, and he’s averaging 16.6 PRA across three matchups against the Thunder this series. He’s a proven floor-spacer shooting 43.1% from three, and over his last 15 games, he’s made 2.7 THREES PER GAME—up +0.6 from his season-long average. That lines up directly with this defense: OKC allows the 8TH-MOST THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS in the league over the last 5 games. BUT the matchup gets even better when you consider how often he gets to the line. The Thunder allow the 4TH-MOST FREE THROW ATTEMPTS in that same span, and Nesmith’s FT% has jumped to 89.8% this year, up significantly from last season. Combine that with Indiana’s home-court edge—the Pacers rank 5TH in scoring at home this season and play at the 6TH-FASTEST PACE—and this becomes a high-possession, efficient shooting environment that boosts both volume and opportunity. SO with elite tempo, soft perimeter defense, and trending shooting splits, this number is WAY TOO LOW. for my #1 Play of the Day

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