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Top NBA Picks Thursday (6/11)

#5

👇S. Gilgeous-Alexander: U 47.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

SGA keeps lighting up the Finals box score, but this projection is inflated for the road. He’s gone UNDER 47.5 PRA in 10 of his last 13 games, including both matchups in this series, where he’s averaged just 46.5 PRA despite high usage. That trend matters because Indiana has quietly been one of the toughest teams for point guards to pad full stat lines against. Over the last 20 games, they’ve allowed the FEWEST three-point attempts and the 5TH-FEWEST free throws to opposing starting PGs. Those are Shai’s two most efficient scoring lanes, and they’re both being cut off at the source. But it’s not just what Indiana takes away—it’s what OKC isn’t giving Shai either. The Thunder rank 7TH-WORST in offensive rebounds over the last 5 games, which kills second-chance playmaking and eliminates extra shot creation. He’s still producing, but without those extra touches, it’s not enough to beat this high number. And now he’s on the road, where his efficiency dips and the Pacers get to dictate pace. So even with MVP-level talent, this number sits too high in a matchup built to suppress his PRA ceiling.

#4

👇M. Turner: O 20.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Turner has been one of the most reliable pieces in this Finals series, quietly clearing this number in back-to-back games while shooting over 50% from the field in both. And this isn’t a hot streak—it’s a matchup advantage he’s exploiting over and over. Chet Holmgren has allowed the MOST points to opposing starting centers this season (14.2 PPG, 100TH percentile) and also gives up the MOST three-point attempts to opposing Cs (2.8 per game). That’s tailor-made for a stretch-five like Turner, who thrives off pick-and-pop opportunities and trailing triples. But the boost doesn’t stop there. This game features the 6TH-FASTEST pace (OKC) and the 9TH-FASTEST (Indiana), which directly inflates Turner’s volume on both ends. Add in the fact that the Thunder allow the 4TH-MOST free throw attempts and the 8TH-MOST offensive rebounds, and you’ve got a player who can score, crash the boards, and get to the line in a fast-paced setting. He’s also shooting 56.4% over his last 5 games, giving him the efficiency to match his opportunity. So in a matchup that checks every box—usage, pace, matchup softness, and production—this number feels WAY-TOO-LOW for Myles Turner.

#3

👇C. Holmgren: O 11.5 Pts

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Holmgren bounced back in Game 2 with a 15-point performance, and he did it by scoring 9 in the first quarter alone—clearing this number nearly in one burst. That early dominance wasn’t an accident. He’s now facing a matchup that’s been one of the softest in the league for opposing centers. Myles Turner is allowing opponents at his position to shoot 58.6% from the field, the HIGHEST FG% ALLOWED TO CENTERS IN THE ENTIRE NBA. That’s the kind of stat that unlocks value in a number like this. And Holmgren’s already averaging 16.0 PPG on the road, a full two points above this projection. But the edge doesn’t stop with efficiency. This game features the 6TH-FASTEST pace from OKC and the 9TH-FASTEST from Indiana, which means more trips, more actions, and more scoring chances per minute. Add in the fact that the Pacers rank 2ND-WORST in total rebounds, and it opens up additional putback scoring for Holmgren off offensive boards. He’s cleared this number in 16 of his last 20 games, averaging 15.9 PPG in that stretch. So with elite matchup metrics, rising volume, and road splits trending up, this is a clean buy on Holmgren’s scoring projection.

#2

👇T. McConnell: O 6.5 Pts

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

McConnell keeps proving he’s a critical spark off the bench, and this projection hasn’t caught up. He’s cleared 6.5 points in BOTH Finals games, averaging 10.0 PPG, while shooting an absurd 69.2% from the field against OKC. But that shooting efficiency isn’t random—it’s directly tied to the tempo and defensive setup of this matchup. OKC ranks 6TH in pace, Indiana ranks 9TH, and that high tempo favors second-unit players who can push in transition and operate with space. McConnell’s quickness and decision-making thrive in that chaos. And OKC’s defense doesn’t close the door either. They allow the 4TH-MOST free throw attempts, the 8TH-MOST three-point attempts, and the 8TH-MOST offensive rebounds, which creates an optimal scoring ecosystem for Indy’s bench. T.J. has also cleared this number in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging 8.1 points in that span. So with proven Finals success, elite shooting splits, and one of the most favorable pace environments on the slate, there’s no reason this number should still be this low.

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