Welcome back to NBA Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA.

We’re on a generational run right now hitting 77% of our last 35 NBA picks 🤯

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Turner has quietly become one of the most consistent contributors in this Indiana playoff run, and the numbers are backing it up. He’s cleared 19.5 PAR in four straight games, averaging 29.6 PAR across that stretch. The matchup is tailored for his skillset too—Turner ranks in the 86TH PERCENTILE for threes made this year at 2.1 per game, and now faces Jarrett Allen, who allows 2.1 3PA per game to opposing centers—that ranks in the 88TH PERCENTILE for most attempts allowed at the position. But this isn’t just about floor spacing—Turner is benefiting from one of the league’s most favorable tempo and volume environments. The Pacers run the 7TH-FASTEST PACE at home over the last 25 games, and Cleveland allows the 9TH-MOST FGA and 9TH-MOST offensive rebounds—two key metrics that directly contribute to points, putbacks, and stat-stacking possessions. So with elite usage, extended minutes, and matchup-specific advantages on both ends, this projection is too soft for Myles Turner, who’s peaking at the exact right time. This one feels like a LOCK.

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Mobley’s efficiency has quietly leveled up in a major way—he’s shooting 61.5% from the field over his last five games, which is a +6.1% jump from his season average. His confidence beyond the arc is also peaking, hitting 2.0 threes per game over that same stretch—nearly double his season average—adding versatility and expanding his scoring range. But the real unlock is pace. Indiana plays at the 7TH-FASTEST tempo at home over the last 25 games, and Cleveland ranks in the TOP 10 in pace overall this year, which creates a possessions spike and inflates rebounding and scoring opportunities. That tempo boost, combined with Mobley’s elite minute load (81ST PERCENTILE in playing time at 30.3 MPG on the road), means the volume will be there even if his usage is slightly lower in his return from injury. So with form, efficiency, range, and game environment all trending up, this number is WAY TOO LOW for a player trending toward playoff breakout status.

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Nesmith has crushed this number in 6 straight, putting up 17.8 PPG in that stretch while shooting with confidence and volume. In Game 2 alone, he dropped 23 points on 8-of-13 shooting and knocked down five threes, making it clear that Indiana trusts him in high-leverage moments. His minutes also tell the story—he jumped from 25 to 33 minutes between Games 1 and 2, solidifying his place in the playoff rotation. But the matchup is just as important. Cleveland allows the 9TH-MOST FGA and 9TH-MOST offensive rebounds, and that opens up second-chance threes and runout looks for a player who thrives in pace-based systems. And make no mistake—Indiana has pace. The Pacers run the 7TH-FASTEST OFFENSE at home over the last 25, and rank 3RD in scoring over that same stretch, giving Nesmith a high-volume, high-efficiency backdrop. So with extended minutes, hot shooting, and the perfect pace-plus-matchup setup, this projection is begging to be smashed. Easy.

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Wiggins has been one of the most efficient glue guys in OKC’s rotation, quietly clearing this number in 17 of his last 20 games while averaging 18.4 PRA in that span. In Game 1, he lit it up with 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists in just 26 minutes, and the environment for production hasn’t changed. The Thunder lead the league in tempo, running the FASTEST PACE over the last 15 games, and rank 8TH in offensive rebounds over the last 10, creating constant second-chance and transition opportunities. But the real value is on the Denver side—this Nuggets defense has fallen off hard. They’re allowing the 2ND-MOST FGA, the 2ND-MOST assists, and the 6TH-MOST offensive rebounds over their last 10 games, giving Wiggins multiple entry points to contribute. And considering OKC’s deep rotation thrives in these up-tempo, open-space matchups, Wiggins is in an ideal spot to rack up stats without needing huge volume. So with elite pace, a broken Denver defense, and a proven track record, this number is just too easy.

Leveraging promotions and specials across sportsbooks is the #1 key to success in prop betting and pick'em.

By partnering with multiple apps, YOU’LL get access to the best lines and daily offers, enhancing your strategy and maximizing your chances at winning long term. Sign up and start with a guaranteed win (0.5 points) today…

Use code: NBAARMY

Win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup

Use code: NBAARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,000

Use code: NBAARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,500

Use code: HOLKANBA

Get 50% off up to $25 in Novig Cash!

Or if you’re sick of parlays, the place I bet straight markets is always Novig because they have the best odds