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Top NBA Picks (5/8)

#3

👇J. Randle: U 34.5 Pts+Ast+Reb

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Julius Randle is averaging just 29.7 PRA over his last 12 games, staying UNDER this number in 9 of them—including Game 1 vs Golden State, where he finished with only 27 PRA. That’s not a fluke. His trends are pointing down, and this specific matchup only piles on the issues. GOLDEN STATE is an elite suppressor of opportunity: they allow the 5TH-FEWEST FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS in the league, a stat that cuts off Randle’s path to easy buckets and dials down his overall scoring ceiling. It gets worse when you add in that they also rank 8TH-FEWEST in OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS allowed, eliminating Randle’s ability to extend plays and rack up second-chance stats.

But the real dagger here is pace. The Warriors have played at the SLOWEST PACE in the league over the last 10 games, while Minnesota has matched that with their own LEAGUE-WORST TEMPO over the last 15. This is as possession-starved a playoff game as you can find. Randle also comes into this with questionable consistency—he’s shown signs of volatility in minute share due to foul trouble in recent games, ranking in the 88TH PERCENTILE in PERSONAL FOULS at home, a stat that’s already cut into his floor time. So with a pace-killing environment, volume suppression from Golden State, and trendline concerns all stacking up, this number is just TOO MUCH.

#2

👇J. Butler: U 24.5 Points

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jimmy Butler has now gone UNDER 24.5 POINTS in 4 of his last 6 games, averaging just 17.5 PPG in that stretch—including only 20 in Game 1, even with Stephen Curry missing the entire second half due to a Grade 1 left hamstring strain. That should’ve been the perfect setup for a ceiling game, but Butler couldn’t capitalize. And this matchup gives him no breathing room. MINNESOTA allows the FEWEST POINTS to starting PFs this season at just 14.5 per game, a number that reflects elite positional defense in both physicality and system execution. It doesn’t stop there—Minnesota also ranks 3RD-FEWEST in three-point attempts allowed to opposing PFs at home, limiting high-efficiency scoring volume from deep, where Butler is already shooting just 30.8% on the year.

But the real pace dynamic here is where this entry falls apart. The Warriors rank DEAD LAST in PACE over the last 10 games, and the Timberwolves are DEAD LAST over their last 15. This is the slowest combined tempo matchup in the NBA, with both teams squeezing every possession. That’s a nightmare for a player who needs rhythm and volume to hit a number this high. So when you factor in Butler’s recent scoring dip, matchup-based limitations at PF, and the single-slowest environment possible, this number is just WAY TOO HIGH.

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