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Karl-Anthony Towns is quietly dominating this series, and his numbers back it up—he’s CLEARED 29.5 PRA in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of the last 5 games vs Indiana and is AVERAGING 39 over that matchup. That kind of consistency is elite, but what really makes this number beatable is the volume he’s working with. Towns is logging 35 MINUTES PER GAME—95TH PERCENTILE in the league—and ranks in the 96TH PERCENTILE for FIELD GOALS MADE at 8.6 per game. He’s not just getting touches—he’s converting them efficiently, especially on the road where he’s hit 39.8% FROM THREE this season, landing in the 85TH PERCENTILE among all players.

But this isn’t just about Towns—it’s about who he’s facing. The Pacers are the 9TH-FASTEST team in pace this season, inflating possessions and opportunities on both ends. And while Indiana’s offense can push tempo, their defense leaks everywhere. They rank 8TH-HIGHEST in FG% ALLOWED and give up the 9TH-MOST REBOUNDS to opponents over the last 10 games. That puts Towns in position to attack a defense that’s vulnerable inside and on the glass. Even better, the Knicks as a team are 4TH-BEST in OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING recently, meaning second-chance assists and clean-up boards are firmly in play.

But the final edge is at the line—Towns has quietly ramped up his FREE THROW OUTPUT to 6.2 MAKES per game over his last 5, which is 1.5 MORE than his full-season average. So with elite volume, matchup-boosted efficiency, and consistent free points at the stripe, this number is simply TOO LOW for Towns.

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T.J. McConnell has quietly been one of the most efficient scorers in this series, averaging 9.0 POINTS PER GAME across five contests vs New York and CLEARING this projection in 4 of them. He’s done it in limited minutes, but the efficiency has been outrageous—McConnell is hitting 57% FROM THE FIELD over his last 5 games. He’s a master at maximizing touches, and when you look at the current context, that’s exactly what makes this a sharp spot.

Indiana’s system plays fast—they rank as the 9TH-FASTEST offense in the league, and that pace translates to early shot clocks and transition buckets where McConnell thrives. But the real value is in the matchup: the Knicks rank 6TH-HIGHEST in FG% ALLOWED and 5TH-HIGHEST in 3P% ALLOWED, which makes them one of the least efficient defensive units across the last stretch of the season. That means McConnell doesn’t need to force bad shots—he’ll get clean looks in rhythm, especially off the dribble and in midrange zones.

But he’s not just leaning on field goals. McConnell has hit 90% OF HIS FREE THROWS over the last 10 games—a 15% JUMP from his season average—which gives him extra floor on minimal attempts. With the Knicks struggling to contain efficient ball-handlers and Indiana’s scoring peaking at the right time (they lead the league in scoring over the last 5), McConnell’s role becomes more valuable than ever. So with pace, matchup softness, and red-hot shooting all in his corner, this number FEELS FREE.

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Josh Hart doesn’t need to start to crush PRA numbers—he just needs to be on the floor, and that’s not a problem. He’s playing 37.6 MINUTES PER GAME and continues to see one of the HEAVIEST WORKLOADS in the NBA regardless of role. Over his last 20 games, Hart is AVERAGING 25.5 PRA and has CLEARED this number in 18 of them, staying ultra-consistent even as a bench piece. His production comes with serious efficiency—he’s SHOOTING 51.8% FROM THE FIELD this season, up over 10% from last year—and he’s contributing across every category.

On the road, he’s been even more productive. Over his last 5 away games, Hart is hitting 2.0 THREES per game—0.7 MORE than his season average in road games—and getting to the line at a much higher clip, averaging 4.4 FREE THROWS MADE per game—2.2 MORE than his usual away output. But the matchup here might be the biggest boost. Indiana plays at the 9TH-FASTEST PACE in the league, inflating possession volume across the board. And the Knicks, as a team, rank 4TH-BEST IN OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING over the last 10 games, which creates constant second-chance opportunities where Hart racks up put-backs, assists, or drawn fouls.

He doesn’t need to dominate one stat—he fills every column, and the tempo and rebound profile here set him up perfectly to do it again. So with massive minutes, red-hot efficiency, and a FAST-PACED, stat-friendly matchup, this number is an OBVIOUS OVER.

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Andrew Nembhard has stayed UNDER this number in 4 of 5 games vs the Knicks in this series, averaging just 18.4 PRA despite getting consistent starting minutes. But even more telling is how New York’s system shuts him down. The Knicks play at the 3RD-SLOWEST PACE on the road, dragging Indiana into slower halfcourt sets where low-usage guards like Nembhard see fewer touches and even fewer clean looks.

And the issue compounds when you look at possession extension. The Pacers rank DEAD LAST IN OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING over the last 15 games—so once Nembhard misses, the play is usually over. This limits second-chance opportunities that usually inflate assist totals or offer put-backs. But there’s another key edge that hits directly at his scoring: New York defends without fouling. Opposing shooting guards draw the 4TH-FEWEST FREE THROW ATTEMPTS against the Knicks this year, forcing players like Nembhard to rely on contested shots over bailout whistles.

He’s managed just enough to flirt with this number a couple times, but his overall role, pace, and the physical profile of this defense all keep him capped. He’s not a volume shooter, and New York eliminates the few easy opportunities that would push him over the line. So with tempo, matchup, and lack of rebounding safety nets working against him, this UNDER is a LOCK.

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