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Josh Hart has cleared 19.5 PRA in 18 of his last 20 games, averaging 26.1 during that span, and he's doing it with massive volume and top-tier efficiency. He’s shooting 51.8% from the field this season—a +10.2% jump from last year’s 41.6%—and he’s logging 37.5 MINUTES PER GAME, which ranks in the 100TH PERCENTILE across the NBA. That’s rare usage for a role player, and it gives him an unmatched shot at stuffing the stat sheet.

But this isn’t just about minutes—it’s about environment. Indiana ranks as the 6TH-FASTEST team over the last 15 road games, creating more possessions and chances to rack up counting stats. And where Hart thrives most—on the glass—is exactly where the Pacers are vulnerable. They’re giving up the 9TH-MOST TOTAL REBOUNDS this season, and they allow the 8TH-HIGHEST FG%, which fuels Hart’s putbacks and push-ahead assists. Add in that New York ranks 4TH in OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS over the last 10 games, and Hart’s role as a rebounder and secondary creator becomes even more valuable.

So with elite efficiency, monster minutes, and a fast-paced, rebound-heavy matchup that’s tailored to his skillset, this number is just TOO LOW. Hart has all the ingredients to CRUSH this projection.

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Andrew Nembhard has gone under 19.5 PRA in 5 of his last 7 games, averaging just 18 in that stretch, but the more glaring concern is his current shooting slump—just 30.8% from the field over his last 3 games. That kind of inefficiency is brutal in any setting, but this particular matchup magnifies it.

But the Knicks aren’t just good defensively—they're elite at suppressing volume. At home over their last 10 games, New York ranks as the 3RD-SLOWEST team in pace, cutting possessions to a crawl. That alone limits Nembhard’s ability to rack up stats, but it doesn’t stop there. The Knicks also allow the 2ND-FEWEST REBOUNDS, 5TH-FEWEST 3PA, and 7TH-FEWEST FGA to opponents this season—meaning he won’t get many clean looks or follow-up chances either. To make things worse, Indiana ranks DEAD LAST in offensive rebounds over the last 10 games, completely eliminating second-chance volume that could bail him out of a cold shooting night.

So with a massive efficiency drop, a low-possession slog, and a defense that chokes off every statistical lane he depends on, this is a LOCK for less than 19.5 PRA.

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OG Anunoby has hit more than 12.5 points in five straight games, averaging 18.6 PPG during that run, and he’s done it against this same Indiana defense in every game of the series. His scoring efficiency and volume are quietly elite: he’s shooting 82.7% from the line at home over the last 15 games—up 12.3% from his home average—and attempting 5.9 threes per game at MSG, placing him in the 85TH PERCENTILE for volume from deep.

But it’s not just about his skillset—it’s about matchup pace and environment. The Pacers rank as the 6TH-FASTEST TEAM over the last 15 road games, which creates more overall shot opportunities for every Knicks starter. New York also ranks 4TH in offensive rebounds over the last 10 games, which gives Anunoby extra possessions and kick-out threes when the defense collapses. And Indiana’s defense is vulnerable in all the right places: they allow the 8TH-HIGHEST FG% and the 9TH-MOST REBOUNDS, meaning clean looks and extra volume are available in bunches.

So with scorching-hot form, elite home volume, and a matchup that checks every box for pace, efficiency, and shot creation, this number is an OBVIOUS over.

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T.J. McConnell has quietly been a weapon for the Pacers bench, clearing 12.5 PRA in 5 of his last 7 games while averaging 16 in that span. He’s an aggressive mid-range scorer with a tight handle, and he thrives in pace-driven matchups—and that’s exactly what this is. Indiana is playing at the 6TH-FASTEST PACE over the last 15 games on the road, and that environment allows McConnell to maximize every minute he’s on the floor.

But what really makes this number feel light is how poor the Knicks have been at limiting efficient shooting from opposing guards. They currently allow the 6TH-HIGHEST FG% and the 5TH-HIGHEST 3P% in the league, plus they rank as the 6TH-WORST TEAM in defensive rebounds, giving up second-chance assist and scoring opportunities across all positions. Those defensive gaps are perfect for a player like McConnell, who scores with floaters, finds cutters, and thrives when chaos creates opportunity. Even better—he’s making 87.5% of his free throws over the last 10 games, a +13.3% jump compared to his full-season average.

So with a red-hot trend, elite pace, and a defense that gives up high-efficiency looks and second chances, McConnell is in the perfect spot to SMASH this projection.

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