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Caruso’s recent production just doesn’t hold up against this number—he’s gone UNDER 19.5 PRA IN TEN STRAIGHT GAMES, putting up just 11.7 PRA on average during that span. But the real issue isn’t just the usage—it’s the matchup nightmare he’s walking into. MINNESOTA ALLOWS THE LOWEST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE TO STARTING PGs IN THE ENTIRE NBA, holding them to just 39.8% shooting, which directly undercuts Caruso’s already low-volume role. On top of that, this defense DENIES GUARDS OPPORTUNITIES AT THE LINE, allowing the 5TH-FEWEST FREE THROW ATTEMPTS and FEWEST 3-POINT ATTEMPTS to opposing PGs over the last 15 games. That kills off both his main scoring paths. And to make matters worse, MINNESOTA HAS BEEN THE SLOWEST-PACED TEAM IN THE LEAGUE OVER THE LAST 10 GAMES, meaning there’s simply less opportunity across the board to pad stats through rebounds or assists. So in a matchup that limits pace, shot quality, threes, and trips to the line—all while Caruso is on a cold stretch—this number feels way too high.

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Edwards has struggled to consistently reach this number in the postseason, going UNDER 27.5 POINTS IN 3 OF HIS LAST 5 GAMES, and averaging just 23.6 PPG during that stretch. But his path to scoring doesn’t get any easier tonight—he’s facing an OKC defense that’s been elite at every level. THE THUNDER RANK 1ST IN FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE ALLOWED AND 1ST IN 3-POINT PERCENTAGE ALLOWED this season, making them a complete nightmare for shot creators. But they’ve also SHUT DOWN SCORING GUARDS AT THE LINE, allowing the FEWEST FREE THROW ATTEMPTS TO OPPOSING SGs OVER THE LAST 20 GAMES, completely neutralizing Edwards’ drive game. And with MINNESOTA PLAYING AT THE SLOWEST PACE IN THE NBA OVER THE LAST 10 GAMES, there are fewer possessions to chase volume in what’s already a grind-it-out environment. So even as the focal point of the offense, Edwards is up against ELITE efficiency-suppressing metrics on low pace, with limited access to his two best scoring outlets—rim pressure and the three ball. That makes this number feel like a TRAP.

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Dort’s production has quietly fallen off a cliff—he’s stayed UNDER 13.5 PRA IN 10 OF HIS LAST 13 GAMES, averaging just 11.3 PRA over that stretch. But the deeper you dig, the worse it looks. He’s been ICE-COLD FROM THE FLOOR, shooting just 33% from the field and a brutal 27.3% from deep during that span. And tonight he faces a Timberwolves team that SHUTS DOWN PERIMETER OPTIONS, allowing the 3RD-FEWEST 3PM AND THE 7TH-FEWEST FGM IN THE NBA this season. But the pain doesn’t stop there—MINNESOTA ALSO PLAYS AT THE SLOWEST PACE IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE OVER THE LAST 10 GAMES, so Dort won’t even have the volume to try and shoot his way out of the slump. He’s not a high-assist player, and he doesn’t crash the glass enough to make up for the lost scoring. So with a TOUGH DEFENSIVE MATCHUP, SLOW TEMPO, and one of the COLDEST STRETCHES OF HIS SEASON, this number is just way too high.

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Reid’s quietly been a matchup problem for OKC, clearing 16.5 PRA IN 3 STRAIGHT GAMES AGAINST THEM, averaging 18.9 PRA across those matchups. But this one shapes up even better. Reid’s offensive profile is built for this spot—he ranks in the 84TH PERCENTILE IN 3-POINT ATTEMPTS (5.6 PER GAME) and 86TH PERCENTILE IN MAKES (2.1 PER GAME). That’s a key edge because the Thunder ALLOW THE 8TH-MOST 3PA IN THE NBA, leaving the perimeter open for stretch bigs like Reid to capitalize. But he’s not just a shooter—MINNESOTA RANKS 8TH IN OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS OVER THE LAST 20 GAMES, and OKC ALLOWS THE 8TH-MOST OREB THIS SEASON, creating second-chance opportunities. Add in the tempo boost: OKC HAS PLAYED AT THE 4TH-FASTEST PACE AT HOME OVER THE LAST 15 GAMES, giving Reid more chances to rack up stats in transition and early offense. So with a clear volume edge, matchup advantage from deep, and bonus chances on the glass, Reid’s projection looks WAY-TOO-LOW.

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