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Top NBA Picks Tuesday (5/27)

#5

👇J. Hart: O 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Josh Hart continues to be the Knicks' most reliable stat-stuffer, and this PRA number doesn’t reflect the volume or consistency we’ve seen. He’s CLEARED 21.5 PRA in 17 of his last 20 games, averaging 26.3 in that stretch, and he hasn’t just squeaked by—he’s comfortably sailing past the mark. Even after shifting to the bench in Game 3, he still played 34 minutes, posted 8-10-4, and was clearly one of the most active players on the floor. And this spot might be even better. Hart is averaging 29 PRA over his last 11 road games, while continuing to log top-tier usage—100TH PERCENTILE in minutes per game this season at 37.5.

BUT the public keeps fading his points total because of the lineup change, missing the bigger picture—he’s still racking up rebounds and assists at elite rates, especially in high-possession matchups like this one. The Pacers rank as the 7TH-FASTEST pace home team over the last 25 games, which is a massive boost for any Knicks player, and especially valuable to someone like Hart, who thrives in chaos and loose-ball situations. On top of that, New York ranks as the 3RD-BEST offensive rebounding team over the last 10 games, meaning Hart will see second-chance chances turn into easy assist or putback buckets.

SO when you combine the minutes, matchup, rebounding edge, and his recent shooting surge—51.9% from deep over his last 10 road games—this number is too soft. Hart’s role is matchup-proof, and the volume simply hasn’t gone away. He’s clearing this PRA again.

#4

👇T. Haliburton: U 39.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Tyrese Haliburton hasn’t looked like himself lately, and this number reflects peak-form optimism—not the version we’ve seen across the last few weeks. He’s stayed UNDER 35.5 PRA in 15 of his last 20 games, averaging just 32.7 PRA in that stretch, and his struggles have been most apparent at home, where he’s failed to clear this number in 9 of his last 10. Even in Game 3, where he played well early, he faded late and finished with a modest 30 PRA.

BUT the problem isn’t just Haliburton—it’s the environment. The Knicks are a brutal matchup across the board. They allow the 2ND-FEWEST rebounds, 4TH-FEWEST free throws, and 7TH-FEWEST field goal attempts over the last 10 games. Plus, they operate at the 3RD-SLOWEST pace on the road, and Indiana is projected to see a significant drop in possessions because of it. This has a direct impact on Haliburton’s stat floor—less pace, fewer touches, fewer chances to build volume.

It gets worse: the Pacers rank DEAD LAST in offensive rebounds over the last 10 games, which limits second-chance assist and scoring upside. That’s crushing for a facilitator like Haliburton who needs his teammates to finish. And from a matchup lens, it’s ugly—New York allows the 2ND-FEWEST three-point attempts to opposing PGs, meaning Haliburton’s cleanest scoring route gets locked down immediately.

SO with pace down, rebounds gone, threes limited, and volume fading, there’s no reason this number should be north of 35. This version of Tyrese isn’t built to clear it.

#3

👇M. Robinson: U 15.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

This number doesn’t line up with what we’ve seen from Mitchell Robinson all season—or this series. He’s gone UNDER 15.5 PRA in 16 of his last 20 games, with an average of just 12.3 PRA over that entire span. Even in Game 3, where he rejoined the starting lineup and played fairly well, he still only managed 13 PRA in 25 minutes.

BUT here’s what really kills his upside: usage and pace. Robinson simply doesn’t touch the ball often enough to rack up stats in bunches. He hasn’t attempted a single three all season, and he won’t start here—especially against a Pacers team that allows the 7TH-FEWEST three-pointers made across the league. Combine that with New York’s style—they rank as the 3RD-SLOWEST pace team when playing on the road—and you’re getting one of the lowest possession environments possible for a big man who thrives off lobs and rebounds.

Even if Indiana’s tempo increases overall possessions, it doesn’t benefit Robinson. He isn’t involved in transition, doesn’t pass, and doesn’t shoot. He’s also UNDER this number in all 3 games of the series so far, and that’s despite getting a small bump in playing time and a rare usage spike.

SO when you put it all together—no threes, no assists, low tempo, and a consistent history of falling short—this number is simply a reach. He doesn’t have the volume to hit 16 PRA.

#2

👇M. Turner: U 26.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Myles Turner has had some flashy stat lines lately, but this number is still too rich given the matchup and recent trends. He’s gone UNDER 23.5 PRA in 6 of his last 8 games, averaging just 23.4 PRA, and the surface stats don’t tell the whole story. In Game 3, he played solid minutes and shot efficiently—yet still didn’t sniff this number.

BUT what makes this a clear fade is who he’s matched up against. Mitchell Robinson is one of the league’s better interior stoppers and has held opposing centers to just 10.0 PPG, 2.5 free throws, and 1.7 threes per game—all ranked in the bottom 25TH PERCENTILE. That’s a nightmare for a center like Turner, who relies on spot-up threes and drawing contact. And on top of that, the Knicks allow the 2ND-FEWEST rebounds, 4TH-FEWEST free throws, and 7TH-FEWEST field goal attempts over their last 10 games. There are no easy routes to padding stats in this matchup.

Indiana’s team dynamics don’t help either. The Pacers rank DEAD LAST in offensive rebounding over the last 10, eliminating second-chance scoring or assist chains. And they’re expected to lose tempo today, facing a Knicks team that plays at the 3RD-SLOWEST pace on the road—again shrinking the total possessions Turner can convert.

SO while the name value and scoring flashes might suggest upside, the matchup realities, pace drag, and rebounding collapse tell a different story. This number is a full possession too high.

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