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Top NBA Picks Saturday (5/24)

#5

👇S. Gilgeous-Alexander: U 37.5 Points

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

SGA just dropped 38 in Game 2 and was crowned league MVP, but this is a trap number once you look past the highlights. He now walks into a nightmare pace-down spot—Minnesota plays at the SLOWEST TEMPO in the NBA over the last 10 games, cutting possessions and drastically reducing scoring windows. But that’s just the start. The Timberwolves also hold opposing starting point guards to the LOWEST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE in the league this season at just 39.8%, suffocating shot efficiency across the board. What makes this even harder is the way Minnesota limits foul-drawing. Over the last 15 games, opposing PGs have attempted the 5TH-FEWEST free throws per game against them—a direct hit to SGA’s scoring profile, which relies heavily on getting to the line. And it’s not just theory—Shai has gone UNDER this number in 18 of his last 20 games, averaging just 30.4 PPG in that stretch, even before facing this elite defensive wall. So while the headline might say MVP, the numbers say this is a LOCKED-IN UNDER against a top-tier matchup.

#4

👇J. Randle: U 36.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Randle’s Game 2 collapse was impossible to ignore: 2-for-11 shooting, benched in the 4th quarter, and finished with just 16 PRA. But that wasn’t a one-off—it’s the result of a matchup that has him boxed inA from every angle. Oklahoma City has allowed the 3RD-FEWEST POINTS to opposing starting power forwards over the last 5 games, holding the position to just 11.0 PPG. But it gets worse when you factor in pace. Minnesota is operating at the SLOWEST PACE in the league over the last 10 games, slicing volume for scoring, rebounding, and assist production alike. That’s especially relevant for Randle, whose role in this offense has become more unpredictable. He’s coming off a regular season where he landed in the 92ND PERCENTILE for personal fouls, which adds volatility to his floor and limits his ability to stack minutes if things go sideways early. And we’ve already seen that volatility play out with a performance so poor that he was literally pulled from the game during a playoff must-win. So this isn’t a bounce-back spot—it’s a continuation of a matchup he’s not built to beat. This number is WAY TOO HIGH for this role, this pace, and this opponent.

#3

👇A. Caruso: U 13.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Caruso was a defensive spark plug in Game 7 against Denver, but that doesn’t mean he’s set up to fill the stat sheet here. Minnesota is a brutal matchup for guards. They allow the 3RD-FEWEST THREES in the NBA this season, and with Caruso averaging just 2.5 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game across the regular season, he needs every scoring opportunity he can get. But the Timberwolves also clamp down overall efficiency, ranking 7TH-BEST in opponent field goal percentage. And this game won’t give him much room to work—Minnesota plays at the SLOWEST PACE in the league over the last 10 games, which drains usage especially for lower-minute players off the bench. That’s a key issue for Caruso, who has averaged just 19.3 minutes per game this season and is also trending upward in fouls—3.2 per game over his last five, +1.3 above his average, which adds further risk to his availability. He’s already gone UNDER this number in both games vs. Minnesota during this series, posting just 12.5 PRA per game. So between elite perimeter defense, sluggish tempo, and his limited offensive role, this number simply doesn’t add up. This is a CLEAR UNDER.

#2

👇J. McDaniels: U 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

McDaniels flashed in Game 2 with a 22-point outburst, but the setup here screams regression. He’s still tasked with guarding SGA full-time, which limits his offensive upside and often puts him in foul trouble—he’s averaging a staggering 4.8 fouls per game over his last 5 road games, +1.6 higher than his season road average. But even if he stays clean, this is a terrible spot for production. The Thunder allow the 2ND-LOWEST THREE-POINT PERCENTAGE to opposing starting small forwards this season at just 25.5%, erasing one of McDaniels’ few consistent scoring tools. Add in the macro pace dynamics—Minnesota has played at the SLOWEST TEMPO in the NBA over the last 10 games—and he just isn’t getting the touches needed to push past this projection. That’s already played out long-term: McDaniels has gone UNDER this number in 15 of his last 20 games, averaging just 19.2 PRA. So while the last game might catch attention, the data says it was an outlier. With elite perimeter defense, tough assignment duties, and a glacial pace, this number is SET TOO HIGH.

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