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Top NBA Picks Friday (5/23)

#5

👇K. A. Towns: O 36.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Karl-Anthony Towns looked completely dialed in during Game 1, dropping a PLAYOFF CAREER-HIGH 35 POINTS on 11-of-17 shooting, adding 12 REBOUNDS, 2 ASSISTS, and 4 THREES to finish with 49 PRA—EASILY clearing this projection. That breakout wasn’t a fluke—it came against a Pacers defense that’s been exposed by versatile bigs all season. Most importantly, starting centers facing Indiana at home have connected on a WILD 33.3% of their threes—ranking in the 100TH PERCENTILE for efficiency in that matchup. Towns only hit three triples in the entire Celtics series, and he blew past that total in a single night here, showing he’s found his rhythm when it matters most.

But it’s not just shooting that makes this a smash spot. Towns ranks in the 96TH PERCENTILE in SHOTS MADE per game (8.7) and sits in the 94TH for MINUTES PLAYED at home (34.7 MPG), meaning volume and opportunity are fully aligned. Indiana also ranks 3RD-WORST in total rebounds allowed this season, opening up the glass for both boards and second-chance assists. Add in a PACE SPIKE from facing the 4TH-FASTEST road team over the last 10 games, and the Knicks' own elite offensive rebounding (4TH-BEST in that same window) means more extended possessions and potential stat-padding.

So with elite shooting volume, a soft 3-point matchup, rebounding upside, and pace all tilting in his favor, this number is simply too low. This is a LOCK.

#4

👇T.J. McConnell: O 7.5 Pts

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

T.J. McConnell continues to deliver off the bench, averaging 9.9 POINTS across his last 8 games, and hitting this projection in 5 of those 8 contests. But the efficiency is what really stands out—he’s shooting an ELITE 54.2% from the field in that stretch, capitalizing on open midrange looks and transition buckets. His touch has been automatic lately, and in this up-tempo environment, that skill set becomes even more valuable.

Now enter the matchup—New York’s defense is in freefall across every shooting metric. Over the last 10 games, the Knicks have allowed the 6TH-HIGHEST FG%, 5TH-HIGHEST 3P%, and 8TH-HIGHEST FT% in the league. That trifecta is tailor-made for a crafty scorer like McConnell, who doesn’t need volume to make an impact. Plus, the Knicks rank 6TH-WORST in DEFENSIVE REBOUNDS over the last 10, meaning more extended possessions and follow-up looks. And don’t overlook the PACE—Indiana is the 4TH-FASTEST team on the road during that same stretch and ranks 1ST in scoring away from home, putting up 124.1 PPG.

So with shooting efficiency, volume trends, and pace all pointing up—and New York’s defense springing leaks at every level—this is an EASY number for McConnell to clear.

#3

👇J. Hart: U 32.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Josh Hart continues to do the dirty work, but that role comes with a cap. He’s stayed UNDER this number in 14 of his last 15 games, averaging just 26.8 PRA in that span despite heavy minutes. And in a matchup like this, the ceiling just isn’t there. The Knicks are playing at the 3RD-SLOWEST pace at home over the last 10 games, which drains possession volume across the board and makes it harder for any player—especially a non-primary scorer like Hart—to rack up high-end fantasy production.

But more importantly, the Pacers limit the exact opportunities Hart needs to push over this projection. This season, they’ve allowed the FEWEST THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS to opposing starting small forwards, cutting off perimeter space for players who don’t create off the dribble. That directly undercuts Hart’s ability to generate efficient scoring chances. Combine that with New York's own offensive style—they take the FEWEST THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS at home of any team in the league—and you’re left with a grinding halfcourt game that suppresses PRA volume for secondary options.

So even if Hart logs big minutes, the pace, matchup, and team dynamics all point to another under. This is an OBVIOUS one.

#2

👇A. Nesmith: O 9.5 Pts

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Aaron Nesmith went absolutely NUCLEAR in Game 1, dropping 30 POINTS on 9-of-13 shooting, including a CAREER-HIGH 8 MADE THREES and 20 POINTS in the fourth quarter alone. That wasn’t just a heater—it was the peak of a long-term trend. Nesmith has now cleared this projection in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 16.9 PPG in that span while consistently spacing the floor with volume shooting.

But this is more than a hot streak—it’s a great matchup. The Knicks have allowed the 5TH-HIGHEST 3P%, 6TH-HIGHEST FG%, and 8TH-HIGHEST FT% to opponents over the last 10 games. That’s exactly the kind of defense Nesmith punishes. He’s hitting 3.0 threes per game over his last 10 on the road, a full +1.0 boost above his season average in away games. And Indiana gives him the perfect offensive environment to thrive: they’ve played at the 4TH-FASTEST road pace and are the #1 scoring team on the road over the last 10, averaging 124.1 PPG.

So between red-hot shooting, an elite pace, and a soft perimeter defense, Nesmith has all the green lights. This projection is a LOCK.

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