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Top NBA Picks Thursday (5/22)

#5

👇A. Edwards: O 32.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Anthony Edwards continues to log elite volume across the board, playing 36.3 MINUTES PER GAME, which ranks in the 98TH PERCENTILE league-wide for usage. He’s cleared this PRA number in 12 OF HIS LAST 15 GAMES, averaging 39.6 PRA in that span—already a strong trend. But what takes this from good to great is his home production. Ant ranks in the 96TH PERCENTILE IN FIELD GOALS MADE AT HOME, averaging 8.4 per game, and has bumped his three-point makes from 2.5 last year to 4.0 per game this season—clear signs of scoring maturity and confidence in his home building.

This is also a PERFECT MATCHUP for volume. The Thunder play at the 3RD-FASTEST PACE OVER THE LAST 10 GAMES AT HOME, meaning more total possessions, transition looks, and secondary assists for Minnesota’s stars. And the positional matchup is elite: OKC allows the 2ND-HIGHEST THREE-POINT RATE to opposing starting shooting guards this year, giving Edwards another path to scoring efficiency. So when you combine this scoring profile with the fact that OKC is giving up the 4TH-MOST FREE THROWS and 8TH-MOST OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS, Ant gets more touches, more second-chances, and more time at the stripe. Every angle is working in his favor—this number is just TOO LOW.

#4

👇J. Williams: U 24.5 Points

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jalen Williams has failed to clear this number in 10 OF HIS LAST 12 GAMES, averaging just 19.6 POINTS over that stretch, and there’s nothing in the matchup that signals a turnaround. Over his last 5 games at home, Williams has MISSED 4.0 THREES PER GAME—a concerning number given his reliance on perimeter scoring and the home-court shooting dip. But this isn’t just about his recent slump—it’s about how brutal this matchup is on paper.

Minnesota's defense ranks among the most efficient in the league, allowing the 3RD-FEWEST THREE-POINTERS MADE, 7TH-LOWEST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE, and 8TH-FEWEST REBOUNDS—all indicators that limit Williams’s volume, efficiency, and second-chance opportunities. Add in the fact that OKC ranks 10TH-WORST IN OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING AT HOME, and you’ve got a scenario where Jalen’s teammates aren’t keeping plays alive to extend possessions or give him extra looks. So between the shooting struggles and the suffocating matchup on every level—perimeter, efficiency, and rebounding—this number is TOO HIGH for where he is right now.

#3

👇R. Gobert: O 6.5 Points

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Rudy Gobert has been a force in the paint lately, scoring 11.0 POINTS PER GAME over his last 7 and clearing this number in 5 OF THOSE 7 GAMES. He just DESTROYED the Lakers in Game 5 with a career-playoff-high 27 POINTS on 12-of-15 shooting, reminding everyone that when the matchup is right, Gobert can dominate. And today, the matchup is not just favorable—it’s ELITE.

He draws Isaiah Hartenstein, who has allowed 14.2 POINTS PER GAME TO STARTING CENTERS this season—ranking in the 100TH PERCENTILE for most points allowed at the position. But it doesn’t stop there. OKC plays at the 3RD-FASTEST PACE OVER THEIR LAST 10 HOME GAMES, which boosts total possessions, touches, and chances for lobs and putbacks. On top of that, the Thunder have given up the 8TH-MOST OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS and the 4TH-MOST FREE THROWS this season—two areas where Gobert thrives. He ranks in the 86TH PERCENTILE IN FREE THROW ATTEMPTS, and while he’s not elite from the line, the volume is what matters here. So with pace, matchup, and second-chance equity ALL aligned, this is an OBVIOUS VALUE PLAY.

#2

👇M. Conley: U 13.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Mike Conley’s minutes and output simply aren’t where they need to be to justify this projection. He’s averaging just 24.7 MINUTES PER GAME this season—a steep drop from the 29.3 he logged last year—and went UNDER this number in Game 1 vs OKC, finishing with just 13 PRA. His role has clearly shifted to secondary playmaking, and the production shows it.

His shooting is also down across the board. Conley is hitting just 38.4% FROM THE FIELD, a major efficiency decline from 44.7% last year, and now faces the TOUGHEST DEFENSIVE MATCHUP IN THE LEAGUE. OKC allows the LOWEST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE AND the LOWEST THREE-POINT PERCENTAGE to opponents this season—making it extremely difficult for guards like Conley to score or generate rhythm. And even his playmaking has a ceiling here: the Thunder give up the 4TH-FEWEST ASSISTS of any team this season. But what makes this even worse is the lack of team rebounding help—Minnesota ranks 2ND-WORST IN OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING OVER THE LAST 5 GAMES, cutting off second-chance assists and extra possessions. So with efficiency tanking, possessions limited, and matchup dynamics against him in every category, this number is WAY TOO HIGH.

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