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Top NBA Picks Sunday (5/21)

#5

👇K. A. Towns: U 39.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Karl-Anthony Towns has cleared this number just once in his last eight games, averaging 31.9 PRA across that stretch. The volume might look tempting—he just attempted 20 shots in Game 6—but his efficiency has collapsed from deep, where he's shooting a brutal 20.8% over his last 8 games. That’s a red flag in a matchup where the 3-ball is already a dead zone. The Pacers allow the 9TH-LOWEST 3P% to opponents this season, quietly shutting down shooters at every position. But it gets worse: New York’s pace kills ceiling plays. The Knicks play at the 3RD-SLOWEST TEMPO at home over the last 10 games, and they’re the LEAST AGGRESSIVE 3P SHOOTING TEAM AT HOME all year. So you’ve got a cold shooter in a slow, low-volume offense, up against a stingy 3P defense. Even if KAT gets volume again, the combination of poor efficiency, reduced pace, and a limiting shot profile makes this number WAY TOO HIGH.

#4

👇M. Turner: O 19.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Myles Turner has been a quiet killer all postseason, and this number still isn’t catching up. He’s cleared 19.5 PRA in 5 of his last 7 games, averaging 26.1 PRA while shooting the lights out from deep—54.7% FROM THREE over his last 5, up nearly 17% from his season average. That’s not just a hot streak—it’s a perfect storm against this matchup. Karl-Anthony Towns ranks in the 75TH PERCENTILE for 3PA allowed to opposing Cs, giving up 2.1 attempts per game, and opposing starting centers are hitting 58.2% of their shots against him—100TH PERCENTILE in matchup ease. But this isn’t just about Turner—Indiana’s system is tailor-made for this spot. The Pacers are the 5TH-FASTEST TEAM on the road over their last 10, and they’ve been the #1 SCORING OFFENSE AWAY FROM HOME over that span. Add in a Knicks defense that ranks 6TH-WORST IN DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING and allows the 5TH-HIGHEST 3P%, and you’ve got a center with elite usage, spacing, and matchup support. So Turner isn’t just in play here—he’s in a position to DOMINATE.

#3

👇O. Anunoby: O 23.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

OG Anunoby has quietly become one of the Knicks’ most complete weapons, and the numbers back it up. He’s gone OVER this projection in 2 of his last 3 games, averaging 25 PRA, and he just stuffed the box score with 23 points, 9 boards, and 4 combined steals + blocks in Game 6. But it’s the context that really sells it—he’s playing 36.3 MINUTES PER GAME AT HOME this season, landing in the 98TH PERCENTILE league-wide in minutes. That kind of floor time in a high-pace matchup is gold. And the Pacers? They’re the exact kind of defense OG can feast on. Indiana plays at the 5TH-FASTEST PACE ON THE ROAD over their last 10, meaning more touches, more shots, and more scramble plays on both ends. They also rank 3RD-WORST IN TOTAL REBOUNDS and allow the 8TH-HIGHEST FG% this season. Plus, the Knicks have been crashing the offensive glass, ranking 8TH IN OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS over the last 10. So between the usage, the minutes, the matchup speed, and the rebounding environment, OG is locked into a high-floor, high-ceiling spot. This is an OBVIOUS one.

#2

👇A. Nesmith: O 18.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Aaron Nesmith has been one of the most efficient wings in the playoffs, and this number just isn’t reflecting the surge. He’s gone OVER 18.5 PRA in 7 of his last 9, averaging 23.8 PRA during that span while shooting an elite 49.1% FROM THREE. That’s not just a heater—it’s weaponized efficiency in a role that keeps expanding. But this is also a matchup dream. The Knicks allow the 5TH-HIGHEST 3P% and 6TH-HIGHEST FG% to opponents this season, which opens the door for Nesmith to keep firing with confidence. Indiana’s system helps too: the Pacers are the 5TH-FASTEST TEMPO TEAM ON THE ROAD over their last 10 and the #1 SCORING TEAM in that span, creating the perfect storm of volume, pace, and freedom for a shooter like Nesmith. And don’t overlook the little things—the Knicks rank 6TH-WORST IN DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING, creating second-chance spots and extra volume in close games. So between red-hot shooting, pace-driven possessions, and a soft perimeter defense, this one doesn’t just make sense—it feels FREE.

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