Welcome back to NBA Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA.

We’re on a generational run right now, hitting Back-to-Back Sweeps, and crushing 80% of our last 10 NBA picks 🤯

NOTE: if you are only looking for NFL picks, you can always adjust your sports preferences at the bottom of every email and toggle on/off instantly!

Top NBA Picks Sunday (5/18)

#3

👇S. Gilgeous-Alexander: U 49.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

SGA has been the heartbeat of the Thunder offense this postseason, but the numbers point HARD toward the under in this spot. He’s now gone UNDER THIS NUMBER IN 5 OF 6 GAMES VS DENVER in this series, averaging just 40 PRA across those matchups. And this isn’t just a Denver-specific trend—he’s also UNDER IN 18 OF HIS LAST 20 OVERALL, averaging 42 PRA in that stretch, so this is a sustained downturn in all-around production. But this is also one of the WORST possible matchups for stuffing a stat sheet. Denver ranks 3RD-BEST IN DEFENSIVE REBOUND RATE this season, consistently cutting off second-chance opportunities that fuel SGA’s assist and scoring output. And playing at home hasn’t helped either—OKC RANKS 10TH-WORST IN OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS AT HOME, which means fewer clean resets and fewer total touches for a high-usage player like Shai. So even though he’s scoring efficiently, the surrounding stats just aren’t there. With Denver’s elite rebounding and slower pace (10TH-SLOWEST over the last 10) squeezing possessions even further, this number is TOO HIGH. Expect points, but not enough total volume to clear this line.

#2

👇J. Murray: O 27.5 Pts+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jamal Murray stepped up BIG in Game 6 with 25 POINTS and 7 ASSISTS, and the advanced metrics show this number is still TOO LOW. He’s now cleared 27.5 PTS+AST IN 3 OF the last 4 GAMES this series vs OKC, averaging a rock-solid 30.1 COMBINED. But the matchup advantages are even stronger than they look. OKC ALLOWS THE MOST THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS TO STARTING PGs this season, and Murray has already taken advantage from deep across the series. And while OKC is a tough team overall, their current HOME PACE RANKS #1 OVER THE LAST 5 GAMES, meaning possessions and shot volume are spiking exactly where it matters most. Also, Denver’s second-chance production has quietly become a weapon—THE NUGGETS RANK 2ND-BEST IN OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS ON THE ROAD OVER THE LAST 5, giving Murray extra chances to rack up assists when plays break down or extend. Most importantly, Murray has been ON THE FLOOR FOR 41.6 MINUTES PER GAME OVER HIS LAST 10, a +4.6 jump from his season average. So with usage up, volume up, and pace up, this number is WAY TOO LOW for a proven playoff scorer in rhythm.

Today’s 0.5 point specials & bonus cash

Leveraging promotions and specials across sportsbooks is the #1 key to success in prop betting and pick'em.

By partnering with multiple apps, YOU’LL get access to the best lines and daily offers, enhancing your strategy and maximizing your chances at winning long term. Sign up and start with a guaranteed win (0.5 points) today…

👇 Try out PrizePicks (link)

Use code: NBAARMY

Win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup

👇 Try out Underdog (link)

Use code: NBAARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,000

👇 Try out Sleeper (link)

Use code: NBAARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,500

👇 Try out NOVIG (link)

Use code: HOLKANBA

Get 50% off up to $25 in Novig Cash!

Or if you’re sick of parlays, the place I bet straight markets is always Novig because they have the best odds