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Top NBA Picks Friday (5/16)

#3

👇J. Hart: O 24.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Josh Hart is coming off a 24-point performance in Game 5 where he hit FIVE threes and logged his HIGHEST SCORING NIGHT since before the All-Star break, and he did it after taking an elbow to the eye that left his jersey soaked in blood. He’s stepping into Game 6 at Madison Square Garden with MOMENTUM, and his playing time is as elite as it gets—he’s averaged 36.6 MINUTES PER GAME at home this year, ranking in the 99TH PERCENTILE across the league. BUT what really sets this up is the matchup: the Celtics are allowing the MOST THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS to opposing starting SFs on the road this season, and Hart has been ON FIRE from deep, shooting 47.2% over his last 10—12.8% ABOVE his season average. He’s also benefiting from New York’s recent uptick in offensive rebounding, as the Knicks rank as the 7TH-BEST OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING TEAM over the last 5 games, which creates a TON of 2ND-CHANCE OPPORTUNITIES for Hart to rack up points, assists, and boards. SO with heavy usage, red-hot shooting, elite positional matchup dynamics, and extended possessions built into the flow of the offense, this isn’t just a lean—it’s a LOCKED-IN EDGE. He’s cleared this number in 6 of his last 8 overall and 3 of 5 in the series. With the Garden crowd behind him, this number is WAY TOO LOW.

#2

👇J. Brown: U 39.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jaylen Brown put up a massive 26-8-12 line in Game 5 and looked like a true #1 option without Tatum, but don’t let that single-game ceiling distract from the full picture—he’s gone UNDER this number in 17 OF HIS LAST 20 games and is averaging just 33.4 PRA across five games against the Knicks in this series. Even with more usage in Tatum’s absence, the matchup against New York is about as bad as it gets. BUT let’s dig into the positional clamps—opposing SFs are shooting just 33.3% at MSG this season, the WORST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE ALLOWED to the position in the league, and Brown hasn’t cracked 40 PRA in ANY game this series. And the volume? Completely choked by pace. Boston plays at the SLOWEST TEMPO IN THE NBA this year, and the Knicks are the 3RD-SLOWEST team at home over their last 10 games. Combine that with the KNICKS ALLOWING THE 2ND-FEWEST FREE THROWS and 2ND-FEWEST REBOUNDS across the league this season, and the ceiling just isn’t there—even with an expanded playmaking role. SO this number isn’t just aggressive—it’s mispriced. He’s been smothered by this matchup, and the game environment kills the chances for a volume spike. This is an OBVIOUS UNDER.

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