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Top NBA Picks Thursday (5/15)

#3

👇M. Porter: U 19.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Michael Porter Jr. has struggled to make an impact in this series, and the numbers back up why this projection is a strong under spot. He’s failed to clear 17.5 PRA in 4 of 5 games vs the Thunder, averaging just 13.8 PRA across the series. BUT THE REAL ISSUE IS THE MATCHUP—OKC has completely erased his shooting profile. They allow the LOWEST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE IN THE NBA, and their length on the perimeter has been a nightmare for wings like Porter. Even more specifically, opposing starting small forwards have posted the 2ND-LOWEST THREE-POINT RATE IN THE LEAGUE vs the Thunder this season, which is a direct hit to MPJ’s best scoring weapon. Because of all this, he is barely shooting 28.6% in FGs over his last 5 vs the Thunder. And while he briefly flashed with a 21-point night in Game 3, it required a ridiculous 70% shooting clip and 5-of-6 from three—not just unsustainable, but statistically unlikely to repeat against a top-5 perimeter defense. On top of that, DENVER HAS PLAYED AT THE 7TH-SLOWEST PACE IN THE NBA OVER THE LAST 10 GAMES, meaning Porter’s already-fragile volume is further limited by a slow game environment. SO when you combine the elite wing defense, suppressed shot volume, and proven history of underperforming in this exact matchup, this number is too high. This under stands on rock-solid ground.

#2

👇N. Jokic: U 54.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Nikola Jokic erupted for 44 points and 15 rebounds in Game 5, but that single-game outlier doesn’t erase the broader trend—he’s still gone UNDER this number in 3 of 5 games vs OKC this series. Zoom out further and the story gets even stronger: he’s stayed under this projection in 11 of his last 15 overall, struggling to hit his usual ceiling down the stretch. And the matchup here is brutal. The Thunder are quietly one of the BEST DEFENSIVE TEAMS in the NBA, holding opponents to the LOWEST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE, LOWEST THREE-POINT PERCENTAGE, and 4TH-FEWEST ASSISTS per game this season. That’s a triple threat to Jokic’s all-around stat line. Despite averaging 10.2 assists per game on the season, Jokic hasn’t hit more than 6 dimes in ANY game this series, a huge dip that limits his PRA upside regardless of how well he shoots. It’s also worth noting that OKC ranks 6TH-BEST in defensive rebounds, making it harder for Jokic to pad numbers through tip-ins or second-chance stats. And the system around him is slowing him down—Denver has played at the 7TH-SLOWEST PACE in the NBA over their last 10 games, shrinking possession volume in a must-win spot. So even with the occasional scoring spike, this projection is built on outliers, not consistency. The sharp side remains the UNDER.

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