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Top NBA Picks Wednesday (5/14)

#5

👇J. Butler: U 44.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jimmy Butler has gone UNDER this number in 18 of his last 20 games, posting just 31.1 PRA in that stretch—a steep drop from expectations. But his recent struggles are only part of the story. This is arguably the WORST tempo matchup in the league right now, with Golden State ranking 2ND-SLOWEST in pace over their last 25 games and Minnesota sitting DEAD LAST over the last 15. That creates a brutal possessions gap for everyone on the floor—and for a guy like Butler who thrives on rhythm and usage, it’s a red flag.

It gets even worse at the positional level. Butler will match up primarily with Minnesota’s length on the wing, and the Wolves have HELD OPPOSING STARTING SFs TO THE 3RD-LOWEST FG% in the NBA (40.6%). And unlike most elite wings, Butler isn’t getting to the line at volume either—Minnesota gives up the 10TH-FEWEST free throws to the SF position and the 9TH-FEWEST threes, which slashes both his high-efficiency scoring paths.

He’s also not padding with peripherals: Golden State has scored the FEWEST POINTS PER GAME in the league over the last 10 contests, and in Game 4, Butler finished a team-worst -30 in 34 minutes, unable to elevate without Curry on the floor. So even with the ball in his hands, he’s stuck in a low-pace, low-efficiency matchup with no supporting structure. This number is inflated by name value, but it’s a CLEAR UNDER across every metric.

#4

👇J. Brown: U 37.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jaylen Brown has failed to clear this projection in 13 of his last 15 games, averaging just 29.8 PRA across that span. But this pick isn’t just about the trend—it’s about a game environment that’s flat-out suffocating. The Celtics already rank as the SLOWEST PACE TEAM in the league this season, and now they face the Knicks, who play at the 3RD-SLOWEST PACE ON THE ROAD this year. That combination guarantees fewer possessions, fewer shots, and fewer assist opportunities.

And New York doesn’t just slow you down—they clamp you up. They’re allowing the 7TH-FEWEST FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS, 5TH-FEWEST THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS, and the 2ND-FEWEST REBOUNDS in the NBA. That’s a complete shutdown across every key stat category Jaylen needs to hit 38 PRA.

Even if Jayson Tatum is limited or ruled out, Brown isn’t a guaranteed usage magnet—he’s been inefficient when volume rises, and his 89TH-PERCENTILE FOUL RATE (2.5 per game) puts him at risk of limited aggression or reduced minutes in close contests. So between the grinding tempo, elite defense, and his recent trendline, there’s no clear path to upside. This is a HIGH-VOLUME UNDER in one of the most restrictive environments on the slate.

#3

👇J. McDaniels: O 19.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Trayce Jackson-Davis has gone UNDER this projection in 17 of his last 20 games, averaging just 6 PRA during that stretch—nearly half of what this number is asking for. But it’s not just a volume issue—it’s a usage and matchup nightmare. Over his last five outings, TJD has averaged just 8.8 minutes per game, which is 6 fewer than his season average. Even with a start, his time on the floor is unreliable and largely non-impactful.

And when he is out there, he’s facing one of the worst possible defensive matchups. Minnesota allows the 7TH-LOWEST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE, the 6TH-LOWEST THREE-POINT PERCENTAGE, and the 8TH-FEWEST REBOUNDS in the NBA this season. All three stats directly block scoring, rebounding, and assist potential.

Tempo doesn’t help either. The Warriors and Timberwolves rank 2ND-SLOWEST and SLOWEST in pace, respectively, over the last 25 and 15 games—so even bench players are getting fewer touches per minute than usual. And TJD doesn’t stretch the floor at all—he’s in the 5TH PERCENTILE for three-point shooting (0.0%), which means his offensive upside is capped in both scoring variety and spacing. This is a classic case of projection inflation due to role confusion—his name is in the starting five, but the impact isn’t there. This is a CLEAR UNDER with zero margin for error.

#2

👇T. Jackson-Davis: U 11.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jaden McDaniels is quietly breaking out in this playoff run—and the stat profile supports the leap. Over his last 10 games, he’s shooting an elite 54.4% from the field, which is +6.7% above his season average, showing his efficiency is trending way up. But it’s not just hot shooting—he’s also locked into a major role, averaging 32.0 minutes per game, placing him in the 85TH PERCENTILE for playing time league-wide.

And now he gets a perfect matchup to capitalize on that role. The Warriors are ALLOWING THE HIGHEST THREE-POINT PERCENTAGE TO OPPOSING STARTING SFs IN THE NBA (47.0%). That’s not a small edge—it’s a full-on green light for a wing with size, rhythm, and confidence. McDaniels tracked down 12 of his 13 rebounds on the defensive end of the court to secure his second double-double of the playoffs. He’s active on both ends, rebounding well, and moving the ball in transition.

He also gets the home court bump, which consistently elevates performance for role players, especially those with fluid usage like McDaniels. So with elite efficiency, a strong playoff rhythm, and the best positional shooting matchup on the board, this number is TOO LOW for the way he’s playing. This is a SHARP OVER with playoff momentum behind it.

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