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We’re on a generational run right now hitting 71% of our last 45 NBA picks 🤯

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Top NBA Picks (5/12)

#5

👇N. Jokic: U 32.5 Points

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jokic is averaging just 24.1 PPG over his last 14 games, hitting UNDER this number in 12 of those matchups. He’s seen a noticeable drop in scoring volume, and the environment tonight could suppress him again. Oklahoma City allows the LOWEST FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE and the LOWEST 3-POINT PERCENTAGE of any team in the NBA this season, shutting down scoring efficiency across every level. They also allow the FEWEST FIELD GOALS MADE, which directly caps volume for high-usage stars like Jokic. But the defensive clamps aren’t the only issue—Denver ranks 7TH-SLOWEST in pace over the last 10 games, creating fewer possessions in a playoff setting that’s already slower by nature. Jokic will also be on the road, where stars tend to struggle more with rhythm and comfort. So with declining production, a BRUTAL matchup against the NBA’s most efficient defense, and a game script that slows down touches, this number is TOO HIGH.

#4

👇M. Turner: O 23.5 Pts+Ast+Reb

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Turner has quietly been one of the most consistent all-around performers in this series, clearing 23.5 PRA in 5 of his last 6 games and averaging 27.7 PRA during that stretch. He’s locked into top-tier minutes (30.4 per game, 82ND PERCENTILE), and his role continues to grow inside an Indiana offense that’s been RED HOT. The Pacers rank 4TH in scoring over the last 25 games (119.9 PPG) and 8TH in pace, meaning more possessions and more chances to rack up stats. But tonight’s matchup against Jarrett Allen is especially appealing—starting centers facing Allen have shot 31.4% from three, the HIGHEST RATE among all center defenders (100TH PERCENTILE). Turner, who averages 2.1 made threes per game, is perfectly built to exploit that. So with an elite scoring role, pace-up environment, and a specific mismatch from deep, this number is WAY TOO LOW.

#3

👇I. Hartenstein: O 19.5 Pts+Ast+Reb

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Hartenstein has been rock solid lately, averaging 24.8 PRA across his last 5 games, clearing this number in every one of them. His versatility as a rebounder, finisher, and passer makes him a triple-threat in PRA contests. But tonight he faces a defense that gives him EVEN MORE upside—the Nuggets allow the 2ND-MOST ASSISTS and 2ND-MOST FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS to opponents over the last 10 games. Even more telling: opposing starting centers have AVERAGED 14.9 POINTS PER GAME against Jokic this season, which ranks in the 100TH PERCENTILE in difficulty, meaning Jokic is one of the easiest defensive matchups in the league at that position. Combine that with the 2ND-FASTEST pace from OKC over their last 15 games, and this turns into a high-volume, tempo-driven environment where Hartenstein’s floor and ceiling both rise. So with elite recent form, favorable matchup trends, and tempo on his side, this number should NOT be available.

#2

👇A. Nesmith: O 11.5 Points

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: NBAARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Nesmith has quietly been one of Indiana’s most reliable scorers lately, going OVER 11.5 points in 12 of his last 15 games while averaging 14.5 PPG across that span. He’s stepped up from deep, hitting 3.0 THREES PER GAME over his last 5, which is a full 1.0 above his season average. That alone makes him dangerous in tonight’s matchup—but the game environment gives him even more of a boost. Cleveland allows the 9TH-MOST FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS and the 9TH-MOST OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS to opponents this season, meaning extra shots and 2ND-CHANCE looks are on the table. Add in that the Pacers rank 8TH in pace and 4TH in scoring over the last 25 games, and it’s clear Nesmith will get the volume and opportunity he needs. So with elite shooting form, an uptempo scoring system, and bonus possessions via rebounding, this number FEELS FREE.

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