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Anthony Edwards has hit under this number in 14 of his last 19, including both games this series vs Golden State, and now walks into one of the worst possible environments for stat production. The Timberwolves and Warriors rank as the two SLOWEST teams in the NBA—Minnesota is DEAD LAST in pace over the last 15 games, and Golden State is DEAD LAST over the last 10. But Edwards also draws a brutal defensive matchup. The Warriors are holding opposing SGs to the 2ND-LOWEST FG% in the league at just 38.4%, and they’re even stingier from deep, allowing the 3RD-WORST 3P% to SGs at 27.9%. This is not a defense that gives up volume or efficiency, and it’s no coincidence that Golden State also allows the 5TH-FEWEST field goal attempts overall. Edwards re-aggravated his left ankle in Game 2—he finished the game but looked less explosive, and now he’s traveling with just one day of rest. So in a double-dead-pace matchup with elite wing defense and reduced physical ceiling, this number is a trap. Everything in this spot points under.

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Tatum has now scored below this projection in 3 of his last 15, averaging just 25.5 points in that span, and he’s looked anything but dominant in this series. But the deeper problem is the environment—and it’s designed to suppress scoring. Boston ranks DEAD LAST in overall pace this season, and the Knicks play with the 5TH-SLOWEST tempo at home over the last 10 games, which drags possessions to a crawl. That hurts Tatum’s volume, and so does New York’s defense. The Knicks are holding opposing PFs to the LOWEST 3P% in the entire league at home, just 18.6%, and Tatum’s already shooting just 34.3% from deep on the season. He’s also not getting to the line with any consistency, and the Knicks allow the 5TH-FEWEST free throw attempts to PFs at home—another hit to his upside. Despite a 14-rebound performance in Game 2, he struggled again as a scorer and couldn’t even attempt a final shot in the loss. So with no rhythm, limited volume, and two elite pace and matchup filters working against him, there’s no reason to expect a breakout. This under feels inevitable.

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Kuminga has stayed under this number in 15 of his last 20 games, averaging just 16.8 PRA during that stretch, and now he’s facing a top-3 defense in the worst tempo setting in the league. Golden State and Minnesota combine for the SLOWEST overall pace in the NBA—the Warriors rank DEAD LAST over the last 10 games, and the Timberwolves rank DEAD LAST over the last 15. But the matchup is where this really gets tight. Minnesota allows the FEWEST points per game to opposing PFs, and ranks as the 3RD-TOUGHEST defense for 3PA at the position, holding them to just 3.6 attempts per game. That’s a bad sign for Kuminga, who’s shooting a poor 27.6% from deep at home, ranking in the 25TH PERCENTILE league-wide. He also struggles at the line, hitting just 63% of free throws, which limits any bonus scoring on contact. With Gary Payton II returning to the lineup, Kuminga's rotation minutes are also less secure—he logged just 21 minutes in Game 2. So with volume risk, brutal matchup, poor efficiency, and the slowest pace combo in the NBA, there’s too much working against him here. This number doesn’t hold up.

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Bridges has quietly turned into one of the most reliable 3-point threats in the playoffs, clearing this number in 6 of his last 7 games and averaging 2.1 made threes in that span. But his shooting volume is what really drives this pick—he ranks in the 85TH PERCENTILE in 3PA, averaging 5.7 attempts per game, and plays 37.4 minutes a night, which puts him in the 100TH PERCENTILE for usage. That’s elite-level opportunity. He also draws a very favorable matchup against a Celtics defense that’s allowed the 4TH-MOST 3PA to opposing SGs over the last 5 games, right as Bridges finds his rhythm. He dropped 14 points in the 4TH quarter of Game 2 alone, hitting two clutch threes and sealing the win with a steal off Tatum. The Knicks also rank 9TH-BEST in offensive rebounding over the last 5 games, which adds second-chance possessions and boosts volume across the board. So with minutes, volume, matchup, and confidence all aligned—and momentum firmly in his corner—this over feels obvious. Bridges is locked in.

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