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Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

Wild Card Weekend is looking EXTREMELY SOFT 👇 👇

• 2x Bankroll Builder: Low-risk plays designed for steady, consistent growth—ideal for building a solid betting foundation.

• 3x Triple Up: Moderately aggressive plays that balance higher returns with reasonable risk—perfect for stepping up your game.

I just posted 10 more bankroll builders for Wild Card Weekend… get in there!

Saturday Best Bets (LAC @ HOU) (PIT @ BAL)

#5

👇 L. McConkey: O 4.5 rec

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Ladd McConkey has been the definition of consistency down the stretch, recording 5+ receptions in 10 of his last 11 games while averaging 6.8 catches per contest—ranking 5TH among rookie wide receivers during that span. But this week’s matchup sets him up to CRUSH that number. McConkey operates primarily out of the slot, taking 66% of his snaps inside, and the Texans have been a DISASTER against slot receivers all season. Houston gives up the HIGHEST yards per target to slot receivers in the league (8.3) and leads the NFL in touchdowns allowed to that position (13). This game will be played in a dome, which means no weather-related disruptions, boosting passing efficiency and volume across the board.

And here’s the kicker: the Chargers have the 10TH-HIGHEST pass rate in the league, throwing on 62.2% of plays, and are projected to lean heavily on their aerial attack against a Texans defense that struggles in coverage. SO, with Herbert feeding him consistently and McConkey thriving in a role that directly exploits Houston’s weaknesses, this number feels like a LAYUP.

#4

👇 J. Herbert: U 0.5 INT

Best line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Justin Herbert’s precision and decision-making have been ELITE this season. He ranks in the 92ND PERCENTILE for interception avoidance, throwing just 0.16 picks per game across 17 contests. But this matchup further tilts the scales in favor of the UNDER. The Chargers play at the 2ND-SLOWEST pace in the NFL, running just 55.5 plays per game, which drastically reduces the number of opportunities for high-variance turnovers. Combine that with the fact that this game is projected to have the LOWEST total number of offensive plays this week (127.8), and it’s clear this will be a tightly controlled, low-risk environment for Herbert.

While the Texans’ defense is no pushover, ranking 4TH-BEST in cornerback coverage and 2ND in interceptions per game (1.09), they’ve struggled to force elite QBs into mistakes. Herbert’s ability to stretch the field with the 7TH-HIGHEST yards per completion (11.7) means he rarely forces throws into traffic. SO, with the Chargers likely leaning on a conservative game plan to limit turnovers, this UNDER is as SAFE as it gets..

#3

👇

N. Collins: O 69.5 rec yards

Best line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Nico Collins has been an absolute FORCE this season, ranking in the 93RD PERCENTILE for adjusted yards per target while commanding a massive 33.4% target share in games where Houston’s WR depth is thin—a TOP-5 rate among all NFL receivers. But this week’s matchup against the Chargers makes his case even stronger. Los Angeles runs zone coverage at the HIGHEST RATE in the NFL (79.6%), and Collins has DESTROYED zone schemes over the past two seasons, ranking 3RD in yards per route run (3.02).

The Chargers also rank among the worst in defending wideouts, allowing the 5TH-MOST adjusted yards per target to WRs this season (8.4). Adding to the advantage, Houston is projected to pass on a league-high 62.2% of plays this week, giving Collins all the volume he needs to CRUSH this number. SO, with a highly favorable matchup and elite target share, Collins is in a PRIME position to go OVER this projection.

#2

👇 J. Mixon: O 59.5 rush yards

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Joe Mixon’s workload is UNMATCHED, with the veteran handling 86.8% of Houston’s backfield touches in his 12 full games this season—ranking in the 95TH PERCENTILE for RB workload. But this week’s matchup is where he truly shines. The Chargers have been one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing the 4TH-MOST yards per carry to running backs (4.6) and ranking 28TH in yards allowed after contact, which is critical given Mixon’s ability to grind out extra yards.

Predictive models project Mixon for 19.4 rush attempts this week—ranking in the 89TH PERCENTILE among all running backs—against a Chargers defense that allows running backs to control the pace of games. Mixon has cleared 59.5 rushing yards in 7 of 12 games this season against comparable matchups, and this contest sets up perfectly for him to add another. SO, with volume on his side and the Chargers’ glaring weaknesses up front, this number is WAY TOO LOW.

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Sunday Best Bets (DEN @ BUF) (GB @ PHI) (WAS @ TB)

#8

👇 J. Jacobs: O 68.5 rush yards

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Josh Jacobs is heating up at the right time. Over his last five games, Jacobs has exceeded this line in 4 contests, averaging 93 rushing yards per game during that span. When these teams met in Week 1, Jacobs totaled 104 yards on 18 touches, proving his ability to exploit this matchup.

Jacobs’ elite skills as a rusher are further highlighted by his league-leading yards after contact, the HIGHEST among running backs with at least 100 carries. Projections expect Jacobs to see 21.3 carries this week, placing him in the 92ND PERCENTILE for running back workloads. Against a defense that has struggled to contain physical runners, Jacobs is in a prime spot to deliver yet another big game.

#7

👇 K. Shakir: O 53.5 rec yards

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Khalil Shakir has quietly emerged as a reliable weapon for the Bills, particularly in recent weeks. Over his last three games, Shakir is averaging 64.7 receiving yards, consistently outperforming this line. His primary role as a slot receiver aligns perfectly with Denver’s defensive weaknesses. Over the past month, Denver ranks 2ND-WORST against slot receivers, a glaring hole in their coverage that Shakir is perfectly positioned to exploit.

The matchup gets even better when you consider that Denver allows 8.7 yards per target to slot receivers—the 24TH-WORST mark in the league—compared to just 7.9 yards per target to outside receivers (9TH-BEST). Josh Allen clearly recognizes Shakir’s potential, targeting him on 24% of slot routes, the HIGHEST rate on the team. Adding to Shakir’s upside, Denver gives up the 5TH-MOST yards after the catch, setting up plenty of opportunities for Shakir to turn short completions into big gains. This is the perfect storm of opportunity and recent performance—don’t be surprised if Shakir cruises past this line.

#6

👇 S. Barkley: O 19.5 rush att

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Saquon Barkley has been the centerpiece of the Eagles' offense, especially in critical moments. Over his last three games, Barkley has averaged 23.6 carries per game, firmly establishing himself as a workhorse. This week, projections place him at 23.0 rush attempts, ranking him in the 97TH PERCENTILE for running back volume.

When these teams faced off earlier in the season, Barkley shined with 26 touches, 132 yards, and 3 touchdowns, a performance that underscores his ability to dominate high-stakes games. With the Eagles running the 3RD-MOST plays per game in the NFL, Barkley is primed for another heavy workload in this must-win playoff matchup. This line feels like a no-brainer for one of the league's most dependable backs.

#5

👇 J. Allen: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

Best Multiplier: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Josh Allen is a dual-threat quarterback whose ability to find the end zone, particularly in critical moments, is unparalleled. Historically, Allen’s rushing activity ramps up late in the season when conditions get colder and stakes get higher. The Denver defense, which plays the 7TH-MOST man coverage, opens up opportunities for quarterbacks to scramble and make plays with their legs—a setup tailor-made for Allen’s strengths. In fact, Denver’s struggles against quarterback scrambles place them in the BOTTOM 5 in this category, allowing an average of 6.7 yards per carry to QBs.

But it’s not just about the matchup. Allen has scored a rushing or receiving touchdown in 5 of his last 6 games, making him one of the most consistent red-zone threats in the league. Whether it’s a designed run, a broken play, or a short-yardage scramble, Allen has every tool to exploit Denver’s weaknesses. With the Bills in playoff contention, expect Allen to take matters into his own hands when it matters most. This line feels like a LOCK for a QB who thrives in high-leverage situations.

#4

👇 M. Mims: O 3.5 rec

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Marvin Mims has stepped into a more prominent role in the Denver offense, and the results have been outstanding. Over his last four games, Mims is averaging 5 receptions per game, comfortably surpassing this mark. His usage isn’t just volume-driven; it’s highly efficient. 0.3% of his targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage during this stretch, meaning he’s being utilized on impactful plays downfield.

Buffalo’s defense adds another layer of opportunity. They rank BOTTOM 10 in defending short passes of 10 yards or fewer, which aligns with the areas where Mims has been most effective. Denver has also started to manufacture opportunities for Mims, recognizing his ability to generate yards after the catch. With the Bills struggling to contain receiving threats in the intermediate range, Mims is primed for a breakout performance in this matchup.

#3

👇B. Irving: O 88.5 rush yards

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Bucky Irving has been a model of consistency and explosiveness in recent weeks. Since the bye, Irving has averaged 21.7 touches for 135.8 total yards per game, regularly eclipsing this line. The opposing defense sets up favorably, allowing the HIGHEST yards per carry (5.3) over the last three games—a glaring vulnerability for a back of Irving’s caliber.

Adding to the argument, Irving has broken 6+ runs of 15+ yards in his last four games, the 2ND-MOST in the league during that span. Washington’s defense ranks 30TH in success rate against running backs, allowing 2.02 yards before contact, one of the worst marks in the league. Expect Irving to feast in this matchup, with multiple opportunities to rip off chunk plays and pile up yardage

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Monday Best Bets (MIN vs LAR)

#5

👇 M. Stafford: O 229.5 pass yards

Best line: (Underdog)| USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Matthew Stafford is primed to CRUSH this number, and here’s why. The Vikings’ defense has been a PASS-FUNNEL all season, allowing the 2ND-MOST adjusted passing yards per game (245). Teams are consistently attacking them through the air, attempting the 4TH-MOST passes in the NFL (35.8 per game). BUT it’s not just about their defensive struggles—it’s about Stafford’s opportunity. He’s projected for 37.9 pass attempts, the HIGHEST of any quarterback this week, in a game slated to feature the MOST total plays on the slate (132.8).

When these teams met in Week 8, Stafford DESTROYED the Vikings, throwing for 279 yards and 4 touchdowns with a stellar 73.5% completion rate. BUT recent games have seen Stafford dip below 200 yards in three straight contests. SO what’s different this time? For one, Stafford gets the benefit of playing in a DOME, with zero wind and perfect conditions for passing efficiency. Add in the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who were both active when Stafford shredded this defense earlier in the season, and the Vikings’ inability to adapt to high-volume pass attacks becomes glaring. This number feels WAY TOO LOW. Lock it in confidently.

#4

👇 P. Nacua: O 79.5 rec yards

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Puka Nacua is set to DOMINATE in this matchup. The Vikings’ defense has been the WORST in the NFL at defending wide receivers, giving up the MOST adjusted receiving yards per game (165). Since returning from injury in Week 8, Nacua has been a TARGET MONSTER, leading the league in target rate per route (38.9%). BUT it’s not just usage—his efficiency is off the charts. He’s projected for 12.7 targets, the WR-100TH percentile, and is averaging 95.5 receiving yards per game since Week 8, well above today’s number.

The Vikings face the 2ND-MOST WR targets per game (23.6), which aligns perfectly with Nacua’s role as the focal point of the Rams’ passing game. When these teams met earlier in the season, Nacua caught 7-of-9 targets for 106 yards despite being limited in his route participation (64.7%) due to injury recovery. Now fully healthy and in a game expected to feature the MOST plays this week, Nacua’s upside is undeniable. This number feels like a FREE SQUARE.

#3

👇C. Kupp: O 3.5 rec

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

This number for Cooper Kupp is absolutely LAUGHABLE. The Vikings’ defense has STRUGGLED all season to contain slot receivers, allowing the 3RD-MOST catches to the position. Kupp is projected for 8.5 targets, ranking in the WR-89TH percentile, a volume level that makes this number almost automatic. BUT Stafford’s recent struggles—fewer than 200 yards in four of his last five games—might have some doubting Kupp’s ability to deliver. SO let’s look at the matchup: In their Week 8 meeting, Kupp caught 5-of-8 targets for 51 yards and a touchdown, showing he can capitalize on the Vikings’ weaknesses even when Stafford spreads the ball around.

This game’s 132.8 projected plays creates additional opportunities for Kupp, especially in a dome environment with no weather-related disruptions. The Vikings’ pass-heavy tendencies further amplify his chances, as their defense forces teams to throw often. Kupp has been a core piece of the Rams’ offense, and this matchup screams VALUE. Expect him to EASILY clear this number.

#2

👇 T. Hockenson: O 3.5 rec

Best line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

T.J. Hockenson is a LOCK in this spot. The Rams allow the HIGHEST target share to tight ends in the NFL (27.5%), making this a dream matchup for Hockenson. He’s projected for 6.6 targets, ranking in the TE-100TH percentile, meaning his expected volume alone nearly guarantees he clears this number. BUT what makes this even more enticing is the Vikings’ reliance on their passing game—they’re expected to pass on 64.3% of their plays, the 3RD-HIGHEST rate in the league this week. SO, Hockenson’s opportunities are not just a product of his role but also a function of Minnesota’s game script.

The Rams’ linebackers are ranked as the 8TH-WORST unit in defending receivers, a key factor that opens the middle of the field for Hockenson to dominate. Dome conditions further eliminate any variables that could reduce passing efficiency. While Hockenson didn’t play in the first matchup between these teams, his return adds a critical dimension to the Vikings’ offense, and this number feels WAY TOO LOW..

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