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Week 4 already! Let’s crush.

Another newsletter I think you’ll love…

Way-Too-Early Bets (Week 4)

#6

👇 D. Watson: O 199.5 pass yards

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Deshaun Watson hasn’t cleared 200 passing yards in any of his last three games, and on the surface, that’s a huge red flag. But here’s the thing: Cleveland is projected to run the 5th-most offensive plays this week, and they’ve leaned on the pass as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in neutral game situations. What many overlook is that this game will be played in a dome, creating perfect passing conditions for Watson to exploit the 4th-worst adjusted completion rate allowed by the Raiders defense. So, with Las Vegas also ranking among the 3rd-most yards after catch allowed to receivers, Watson is in a prime spot to go higher than 199.5 passing yards despite his recent struggles.

#5

👇 A. Cooper: O 55.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Amari Cooper has been the engine of Cleveland’s air attack, and while Watson has been shaky, Cooper has still managed to haul in some solid numbers, including 117 air yards per game—99th percentile for wide receivers. But what’s crucial here is that the Raiders have given up the 5th-highest adjusted completion percentage to opposing wideouts and rank 4th-worst in limiting yards after the catch. This game is projected to see a lot of passing with Cleveland running the 5th-most offensive plays, and Cooper is expected to command 8+ targets. So, even if Watson struggles, Cooper is primed to go higher than 55.5 yards in a favorable matchup with the Raiders' secondary.

#4

👇 A. St-Brown: O 73.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Amon-Ra St. Brown has become an absolute target magnet, pulling in a 32% target share—98th percentile among wide receivers. But here’s the kicker: the Lions are expected to run the most offensive plays of any team this week, and they’ll be playing in a dome, which means perfect conditions for passing. While Seattle’s defense has been strong in limiting YAC, ranking 9th-fewest, St. Brown’s 83 adjusted receiving yards per game since last season proves that he thrives even in tough matchups. So, with a projected 10+ targets, St. Brown should easily eclipse 73.5 yards in this high-volume, high-paced game environment.

#3

👇 R. Rice: O 75.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Rashee Rice has emerged as a critical piece of the Chiefs' offense, seeing a whopping 14 targets in Week 3. But what you may not know is that the Chargers' defense has been a sieve against wide receivers, allowing the 6th-most adjusted yards per target and the most yards after catch in the league since last season. Kansas City is also projected to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team this week, making it even more likely Rice will continue to be a focal point of the offense. So, with Rice expected to see 11+ targets and the Chargers' secondary struggling, this is a spot where Rice will go higher than 75.5 receiving yards in a dream matchup.

#2

👇 L. Jackson: U 215.5 pass yards

Best Line: (Underdog) (Betr) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Lamar Jackson’s efficiency through the air has been solid, but the Ravens are 3-point favorites, which means this could quickly turn into a run-heavy script. But what most don’t realize is that Buffalo’s defense has allowed the 5th-fewest yards after catch to opposing offenses, limiting explosive passing plays. Add in that the Ravens are projected to pass at the 3rd-lowest rate this week, with Lamar likely attempting the fewest passes of any QB on the slate, and it becomes clear why this number is set too high. So, with fewer passing opportunities and Buffalo’s ability to limit big plays, Jackson is set to stay lower than 215.5 yards in a slow-paced game.