Week 3 Locks

Week 3 is here and the board is loaded. I’ve locked in the strongest numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less.

#6 - N. Collins: O 69.5 Receiving Yards

Nico Collins has reclaimed his role as Houston’s alpha receiver. Last week he owned a MASSIVE 39.1% TARGET SHARE and accounted for 50% of the team’s AIR YARDS, the kind of usage that only true WR1s command. That volume also came with increased versatility, as he moved into the slot on 22% of snaps after just 10% in Week 1, creating easier mismatches all over the field.

But the matchup is what really makes this number pop. Jacksonville’s secondary was just DESTROYED by Cincinnati’s wideouts, giving up 19 CATCHES, 246 YARDS, and 3 TOUCHDOWNS in Week 2. This isn’t new. Collins has already cleared 100 YARDS in 3 of his last 4 games against the Jaguars. With WR1 usage, a defense that just got torched, and a proven track record of smashing this matchup, this projection feels WAY TOO LOW and Collins is positioned to CRUSH it again.

#5 - T. McLaurin: O 23.5 Longest Reception

Terry McLaurin has quietly been primed for a breakout spot. He played 94% of Washington’s passing snaps last week and earned a strong 22.5% TARGET SHARE despite still shaking off his camp absence. The real key is Marcus Mariota taking over at QB. In extended action last season, Mariota locked onto McLaurin with a 33.3% TARGET RATE and produced an ELITE 3.90 YARDS PER ROUTE RUN, one of the best QB-WR connections in that span.

That timing matters because the Raiders have been a bottom-tier secondary against explosive plays, allowing a 57.1% COMPLETION RATE on throws 20+ yards downfield (25TH in NFL). They’ve already been beaten deep by Kayshon Boutte (103 yards) and Quentin Johnston (71 yards and a touchdown) in the first two weeks, and neither has McLaurin’s downfield skill set. With a QB who feeds him vertical targets and a defense that consistently gives them up, McLaurin has every opportunity to break this projection with ONE PLAY.

#4 - G. Pickens: O 22.5 Longest Reception

George Pickens is stepping into the perfect storm for a splash play. He’s already Dak Prescott’s go-to perimeter weapon, leading Dallas WRs with 4 RED-ZONE TARGETS last week while also drawing 79 YARDS of pass interference penalties, the MOST of any receiver in the league through two weeks.

What makes this spot undeniable is Chicago’s inability to defend the outside. The Bears have allowed a league-worst 13.8 YARDS PER TARGET to outside WRs, and they’ve been getting shredded downfield, giving up a 73.3% COMPLETION RATE on throws 10+ yards with 3 TOUCHDOWNS. Pickens has run nearly 90% of his routes on the outside, putting him directly in the softest spot of this defense. Even with modest volume, it only takes one of his trademark sideline go-balls to SMASH this number, and against the WORST outside coverage unit in football, that opportunity feels OBVIOUS.

#3 - D. Prescott: O 265.5 Pass Yards

Dak Prescott is coming off one of the most productive games of his career, completing 38 of 52 passes for 361 YARDS and 2 TOUCHDOWNS in Week 2, finishing as the QB6 overall. The matchup makes him such a strong play this week. Chicago’s defense has been picked apart through the air, ranking DEAD LAST in pressure rate (18.9%), which means Dak will have clean pockets all day.

When opponents haven’t been pressured against the Bears, they’ve completed 75.6% of their throws at 8.8 YARDS PER ATTEMPT, both bottom-3 marks in the league. They’ve also been torched downfield, allowing a 73.3% COMPLETION RATE on passes 10+ yards with 3 TOUCHDOWNS, more than DOUBLE the league average in efficiency. Chicago has already allowed back-to-back QB1 fantasy weeks to J.J. McCarthy and Jared Goff, confirming that this is one of the most pass-friendly matchups in football. With volume, efficiency, and matchup all aligning, Prescott is set up to CLEAR this projection with room to spare.

#2 - Z. Flowers: O 67.5 Receiving Yards

Zay Flowers has emerged as Baltimore’s clear WR1, opening the season with back-to-back 7-catch games while commanding 39–47% of the team’s targets and nearly 50% of their air yards. His efficiency against man coverage is what really gives him upside in this spot. This year he’s been targeted on 34.5% of his routes vs. man coverage and turned that into an elite 3.69 YARDS PER ROUTE, a top-end efficiency mark.

Detroit happens to play man at the 9TH-HIGHEST RATE in the NFL, yet they rank just 26TH in pressure rate, meaning Lamar Jackson will have time to find Flowers in these favorable matchups. This is also the same defense that finished LAST in WR receiving yards allowed last year and still sits in the bottom-10 to start this season. With volume, efficiency, and matchup dynamics all pointing the same way, Flowers is in line to keep stacking production and has a clear path to SMASH this projection again.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Week 3 locks don’t last long—hit these numbers before they move. 

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA