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13 picks already posted for TNF 👇 👇

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Week 14 Parlay ($100 into $1,000)

#5

👇J. Jefferson: O 79.5 rec yards

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Justin Jefferson is perfectly set up for a breakout game against a Falcons defense that has been TORCHED by top wideouts all season. ATLANTA HAS ALLOWED THE 5TH-MOST RECEPTIONS AND 3RD-MOST RECEIVING YARDS TO WRs this year, highlighting their struggles against the position. Their reliance on Cover 3 coverage (38.5%, 6TH-MOST) is a massive edge for Jefferson, who DOMINATES this scheme with a 31.6% TARGET SHARE and 3 YARDS PER ROUTE RUN. When Jefferson faced the Colts—who run an even higher rate of Cover 3—he PUT UP A SEASON-HIGH 137 YARDS, and Atlanta’s secondary isn’t equipped to slow him down in a similar setup.

The Vikings’ offensive tendencies further amplify Jefferson’s upside. Minnesota’s pass-heavy approach (63.4% PASS RATE, 4TH-HIGHEST) ensures high volume, and Jefferson is PROJECTED FOR 10.5 TARGETS (97TH PERCENTILE) this week, one of the highest of any receiver. Playing indoors eliminates weather concerns, allowing Jefferson’s elite efficiency—10.27 ADJUSTED YARDS-PER-TARGET (92ND PERCENTILE)—to shine. With Atlanta ranking 31ST IN POINTS ALLOWED TO OPPOSING WR1 TARGETS (19.1), all signs point to Jefferson CRUSHING this number and delivering one of his signature performances.

#4

👇 D. London: O 5.5 rec

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Drake London is primed for a high-volume day against a Vikings defense that has been one of the league’s biggest pass funnels. MINNESOTA HAS ALLOWED THE 2ND-MOST RECEPTIONS AND 3RD-MOST YARDS TO WRs this season, ranking near the bottom in nearly every key coverage metric. London’s move into a "power slot" role has unlocked a new level of efficiency—TARGETED ON 36.9% OF HIS ROUTES FROM THE SLOT, he’s averaging an impressive 2.74 YARDS PER ROUTE RUN. This is a significant advantage against MINNESOTA’S SLOT DEFENSE, WHICH RANKS 31ST IN POINTS ALLOWED TO SLOT WRs (16.3 PER GAME).

The game script also favors London’s involvement. As 5.5-POINT UNDERDOGS, the Falcons are projected for a PASS-HEAVY APPROACH, with this contest featuring THE 5TH-HIGHEST TOTAL PLAYS RUN (129.8) on the slate. London’s TARGET SHARE (27.3%, WR6) and PROJECTED TARGETS (10.9, 100TH PERCENTILE) highlight his central role in Atlanta’s offense, ensuring he sees consistent volume. Additionally, his dominance in high-leverage situations—LEADING THE NFL IN RED ZONE (48.7%) AND END ZONE TARGET SHARE (57.9%)—makes him an even bigger threat to exceed this number. Against this struggling secondary, London is set to DELIVER.

#3

👇 G. Pickens: O 59.5 rec yards

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George Pickens continues to prove why he’s Pittsburgh’s top receiving weapon, and Week 14 presents another opportunity for him to shine. Cleveland’s defense has been highly vulnerable to big plays, ALLOWING THE MOST ADJUSTED YARDS-PER-TARGET TO WRs this season. Pickens is built to exploit this weakness—he commands a MASSIVE 46.4% SHARE OF PITTSBURGH’S AIR YARDS, ranking WR2 league-wide. His efficiency is elite, averaging 9.67 ADJUSTED YARDS-PER-TARGET (79TH PERCENTILE), and he thrives in man coverage, which Cleveland runs on 32.2% OF PLAYS (7TH-MOST). Against man, Pickens sees a TARGET RATE OF 32.3%, significantly higher than against zone defenses.

The matchup dynamics further bolster Pickens’ upside. This game is projected to feature THE HIGHEST TOTAL PLAY VOLUME (139.7), and Pittsburgh ranks 2ND IN OFFENSIVE PLAYS RUN PER GAME. With Pickens projected for 8.4 TARGETS (88TH PERCENTILE), his opportunity is undeniable. Cleveland’s CBs grade as THE 10TH-WORST IN COVERAGE, making this an ideal setup for Pickens to exploit one-on-one matchups. With volume, efficiency, and matchup dynamics all in his favor, Pickens is a LOCK to clear this number.

#3

👇 C. Rush: O 219.5 pass yards

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Cooper Rush is in a prime spot to exceed his projection against a Bengals defense that has struggled against opposing quarterbacks. CINCINNATI HAS ALLOWED THE 8TH-MOST PASSING YARDS PER GAME this season, and Rush is projected for 40.2 PASS ATTEMPTS (3RD-MOST THIS WEEK), driven by Dallas’ expected 63.3% PASS RATE (4TH-HIGHEST). Playing indoors eliminates weather variables, ensuring optimal conditions for Rush to exploit a Bengals secondary that allows 8.23 ADJUSTED YARDS-PER-TARGET (6TH-MOST) and ranks as THE 3RD-WORST IN COVERAGE at the safety position.

The Cowboys’ offense ranks 3RD IN OFFENSIVE PLAYS RUN PER GAME (61.2), giving Rush plenty of opportunities to rack up yardage. Game script also supports a pass-heavy approach, with Dallas entering as 5.5-POINT UNDERDOGS. Cincinnati’s vulnerability to explosive plays further increases Rush’s ceiling, as their defensive structure struggles to contain QBs who push the ball downfield. With volume, matchup dynamics, and conditions all aligned, Rush is well-positioned to EASILY clear this number.

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