Way-Too-Early Picks

Week 5 always brings overreactions and hidden value. Here are my way-too-early picks for every matchup… in two minutes or less.

#5 - A. Kamara: O 56.5 Rushing Yards

Kamara has quietly averaged 71 rushing yards across his last three games, holding steady with more than 65% of the Saints’ backfield touches every week. But this matchup against the Giants is as good as it gets, with their run defense leaking big plays, ranking 3RD-WORST in yards per carry allowed at 6.0 and giving up the 3RD-MOST rushing points to backs. Just last week, Omarion Hampton gashed them for 128 yards on only 12 carries, showing how fast teams can pile it on. So in a game where New Orleans already plays run-heavy with the 3RD-LOWEST dropback rate in neutral script, Kamara is positioned to DOMINATE and this projection looks WAY-TOO-LOW.

#4 -D. Maye: O 25.5 Rushing Yards

Maye has cleared this projection in two of his last three games and he’s already added rushing touchdowns to his profile, proving the legs are a real weapon. But no defense invites QB rushing production more than Buffalo, which has allowed the MOST rushing yards per game to quarterbacks at 50, the worst mark in the league. They bring the 2ND-HIGHEST pressure rate at 45.5%, which forces quarterbacks off-script and into scramble situations repeatedly. So with Maye facing his heaviest pressure test so far, this matchup sets him up to tuck and run often, making this projection feel like a LOCK to get cleared.

#3 - J. Gibbs: O 69.5 Rushing Yards

Gibbs has taken full control of Detroit’s backfield, out-touching Montgomery 17 to 9 last week and playing more than 70% of snaps through three quarters. He’s topped 90 rushing yards in back-to-back games including against Cleveland’s elite run defense, showing his efficiency holds up against anyone. But Cincinnati’s defense has completely collapsed over the last three weeks, ranking 2ND-WORST in yards per carry allowed at 5.4 and 31ST in success rate against the run. They’ve been CRUSHED for 176, 185, and 218 rushing yards by opposing backfields in consecutive games, the worst stretch in football. So with Gibbs heating up and the Bengals falling apart, this number is WAY-TOO-LOW and he’s primed to SMASH it again.

#2 - D. Montgomery: O 43.5 Rushing Yards

Montgomery’s share of the touches has dipped with Gibbs emerging, but he still holds more than 40% of the workload in one of the NFL’s most productive backfields. But this is the kind of matchup where even secondary usage gets rewarded as the Bengals have been DESTROYED by multiple backs in the same game, allowing two different runners to top 90 yards in two of their last three contests. They’ve also surrendered back-to-back weeks with two top-30 fantasy RBs from the same backfield, which shows just how generous this defense is. Detroit’s rushing attack has averaged 157 yards per game over the last three weeks, one of the hottest in the league. So even in a split, Montgomery’s role and this matchup make his projection laughably low and he should CLEAR it with room to spare.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. If you want an edge in Week 5, it starts with spotting where the market is off… and getting ahead before everyone else catches up.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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