Way-Too-Early Picks

Week 4 always brings overreactions and hidden value. Here are my way-too-early picks for every matchup… in two minutes or less.

#6 - D. London: O 64.5 Receiving Yards

Drake London already owns the 8TH-MOST TARGETS in the NFL through three weeks, but his fantasy scoring ranks just 46TH, creating the perfect buy-low spot. He’s not only seeing volume, he ranks in the 96TH PERCENTILE for air yards, meaning he’s constantly being targeted downfield where defenses crack. But Washington’s secondary has been a complete liability, their corners grade out as the WORST coverage unit in football since last year, and opposing WRs are consistently finding space against them.

This game being played in a dome with ZERO WIND only amplifies passing efficiency, making London’s deep-threat role even more dangerous. And with Atlanta running the 3RD-MOST plays per game since last season, London has the volume floor to go with a ceiling matchup. So with a projected 9+ targets and a chance to exploit the NFL’s weakest coverage unit in perfect passing conditions, London is lined up to SMASH this projection.

#5 - J. Love: O 233.5 Passing Yards

Jordan Love has quietly cleaned up his passing accuracy, his ADJUSTED COMPLETION RATE has jumped from 65.9% last year to 70.6% this season, but that hasn’t shown up in the yardage yet. The timing here is perfect, because Dallas has been DESTROYED through the air in recent weeks, they’ve given up 748 passing yards and 7 TOUCHDOWNS in just their last two games, and over the longer stretch they’ve allowed the 3RD-MOST passing TDs in football since last season.

But it’s not just the secondary, Green Bay’s offensive line has graded as the 7TH-BEST in pass protection since last year, keeping Love clean so he can attack. And while the Packers usually run one of the 4TH-FEWEST plays per game in football, this matchup takes place indoors where efficiency spikes and Dallas forces extra passing volume. So with an improved accuracy profile, elite pass protection, and a defense that’s been carved up by average quarterbacks, Love is set up to BOUNCE BACK and crush 233.5 passing yards.

#4 - J. Herbert: O 258.5 Passing Yards

The Chargers project a 63.5% PASS RATE this week, the 4TH-HIGHEST mark in the league, and when Justin Herbert gets this type of volume, it’s only a matter of how big the number gets. The matchup couldn’t be better: the Giants have allowed the 3RD-MOST passing yards through just three games, consistently giving up chunk plays in the secondary. Their corners have been a problem for a while, grading as the 9TH-WORST coverage group since last year, and it shows in the efficiency, they’ve allowed the 7TH-MOST adjusted yards per target to wide receivers.

But what really tips this over is that the game is being played indoors with ZERO WIND, so Herbert’s deep accuracy and overall passing efficiency are maximized. The Chargers also lead the NFL in pass rate above expectation, which means they don’t just throw a lot, they throw MORE than expected even when game script says otherwise. So against one of the league’s weakest secondaries, in a dome, with volume guaranteed, Herbert is set to EASILY clear 258.5 passing yards.

#3 - L. McConkey: O 60.5 Receiving Yards

Ladd McConkey is in the right place at the right time, he plays in the Chargers offense, which not only projects the 4TH-HIGHEST pass rate this week, but also leads the NFL in pass rate above expectation, meaning Herbert forces volume to his wideouts regardless of game script. But the Giants have been one of the softest defenses against receivers this season, allowing the 2ND-MOST receiving yards to the position through three weeks.

Their corners rank as the 9TH-WORST coverage group in the league since last season, and they’ve also allowed the 5TH-MOST adjusted completion rate to wideouts, so efficiency spikes against them as well. Add in the fact this game is played indoors with ZERO WIND, and timing routes become nearly impossible to stop. So between the guaranteed WR usage, a defense bleeding yardage to receivers, and a perfect passing environment, McConkey’s 60.5 projection looks WAY TOO LOW.

#2 - J. Ferguson: O 49.5 Receiving Yards

Jake Ferguson’s role is set up for a breakout, he’s projected in the 96TH PERCENTILE for tight end targets this week, one of the best usage profiles at the position. The Packers defense has been a complete funnel against tight ends, allowing the 2ND-WORST adjusted receiving yards to the position since last season and the 9TH-MOST yards per target.

But Dallas also projects to throw on 64.5% of their plays, the 3RD-MOST this week, so the volume is secure, especially with CeeDee Lamb sidelined. Ferguson has also improved his efficiency this year, hauling in passes at an 84.9% adjusted completion rate, up massively from last season. The Cowboys have averaged the 2ND-MOST plays per game since last year, giving Ferguson even more chances to rack up yards. So with elite projected usage, a perfect pass-heavy setup, and a defense that consistently bleeds yardage to tight ends, Ferguson is a LOCK to soar past 49.5 receiving yards.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. If you want an edge in Week 4, it starts with spotting where the market is off… and getting ahead before everyone else catches up.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA