Way-Too-Early Picks

Week 3 always brings overreactions and hidden value. Here are my way-too-early picks for every matchup… in two minutes or less.

#5 - L. Jackson: O 48.5 Rush Yards

Lamar opened the season with a 70-yard 1-TD explosion on just 6 carries, flashing the same ceiling that has made him fantasy gold for years BUT his Week 2 line of only 13 yards on 2 attempts has pushed this projection down into buy-low territory. Across two weeks, he’s still averaging 10.4 yards per carry, which is an elite level of efficiency even on a small sample. He’s also been historically solid vs. Detroit with 5.9 yards per carry across career matchups, so the matchup supports upside. BUT the key factor is that his quiet Week 2 created an artificially deflated projection, making this number look way too conservative for a player with Lamar’s big-play rushing profile. SO if Baltimore leans on his legs even slightly more, he can SMASH this 48.5 in just a few scrambles and this is a classic spot to buy into a bounce-back and trust the ceiling.

#4 - P. Mahomes: O 26.5 Rush Yards

Mahomes has been more efficient with his legs this season, averaging 9.0 adjusted yards per carry, up from 8.26 last year BUT what makes this projection a steal is the matchup. The Giants have allowed the 2ND-MOST adjusted rushing yards per game since last season (143 per game) which sets up perfectly for a mobile quarterback who thrives when the pocket breaks down. On top of that, Mahomes’ projected carry share is 17.6%, up from just 11.3% last year, nearly DOUBLE his normal role which is a massive usage spike in this context. The Chiefs are also projected to run the 10TH-MOST plays on the slate this week, ensuring plenty of opportunities for Mahomes to tuck and run. SO with efficiency at a career-best clip, a defense ranked among the worst at containing rushing production, and usage projections that scream upside, 26.5 rushing yards looks like a LOCK and this is the kind of number Mahomes can crush with just a few scrambles in key spots.

#3 - J. Jacobs: U 81.5 Rush Yards

Josh Jacobs has 150 rushing yards this season on 42 carries BUT that’s only 3.6 yards per carry, a clear sign his efficiency isn’t close to elite. Through two games, he’s averaging 75 yards per game with 66 against Detroit and 84 against Washington, solid numbers BUT still short of the 82 he’d need to beat this projection. His workload remains heavy, but against Detroit he projects closer to the low end of his 18–25 carry range, which caps his rushing ceiling. Historically, he’s managed 4.3 yards per carry vs. the Lions with 7 TDs in five career games BUT that stat line highlights why his efficiency has hovered in an average range rather than blowing up for monster yardage totals. SO when you combine current efficiency at 3.6 YPC, average output at 75 per game, and a likely tougher matchup script, 81.5 feels HIGH and this number sets him up to disappoint more often than not.

#2 - B. Nix: O 18.5 Rush Yards

Bo Nix has already cleared this projection on average, sitting at 19.0 rushing yards per game through his first two starts BUT the efficiency jump in Week 2 is what makes this pick pop. Against the Colts, he logged 20 yards on just three attempts, showing he doesn’t need a heavy rushing workload to deliver explosive value. Through two games, he’s at 11 rush attempts total, which locks in a real baseline for his rushing role even in Denver’s pass-first scheme. BUT the key is that his legs are part of the offense when the pocket breaks down, and the sample already shows he can generate chunk plays quickly. SO at a projection sitting BELOW his average with proven efficiency upside, 18.5 feels like an EASY CLEAR and this number looks way too low for a quarterback who can rip off 20+ yards on a handful of carries.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. If you want an edge in Week 3, it starts with spotting where the market is off… and getting ahead before everyone else catches up.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe