Way-Too-Early Picks

Football is officially back. Week 2 always brings overreactions and hidden value. Here are my way-too-early picks for every matchup… in two minutes or less.

#5 - J. Conner: O 69.5 Rushing Yards

Conner’s Week 1 stat line doesn’t wow you at 44 yards on 16 touches, but the real edge is his clear workhorse role in Arizona. He out-touched rookie Trey Benson by 7 and handled every important carry, including goal-line looks, even finding the end zone on a short shovel pass. But the matchup here is the true story: Carolina allowed the most rushing yards in 2024 and just gave up 143 yards on 16 carries to Travis Etienne in Week 1, nearly nine yards per carry. That’s not a one-off, it’s a defense that has consistently been gashed on the ground. So with Conner locked into 15 or more touches against the worst run defense in football, this 69.5 projection is way too low and sets up as one of the most obvious overs on the board.

#5 - J. Fields: O 46.5 Rush Yards

Fields didn’t just run in Week 1, he took over, racking up 48 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns on 12 carries. That came against Pittsburgh, a unit ranked top five against quarterback runs in 2024, proving his legs remain an unstoppable weapon no matter the opponent. But this week he gets Buffalo, and they just allowed 70 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson in Week 1, a clear sign they can’t contain elite mobile quarterbacks. Fields’ usage wasn’t a fluke, with 12 carries split between designed runs and scrambles showing the Jets are fully building around his rushing ability. So with volume that high and a defense already exposed by another mobile quarterback, this 46.5 number is going to get crushed easily and feels like one of the safest plays of the slate.

#4 - J. Flacco: O 251.5 Pass Yards

Flacco’s debut featured 45 pass attempts and 290 yards, showing Cleveland is fully committed to letting him air it out. He leaned heavily on quick throws and underneath routes, which kept the chains moving and built passing volume without needing deep shots. But Baltimore is the exact type of matchup where that volume spikes even higher. They allowed the second-most passing yards in 2024 and forced the third-most attempts. And it’s not just last year’s numbers, the Ravens were torched for 394 yards in Week 1, the most passing yards allowed by any defense. That’s a trend that can’t be ignored. So with Cleveland’s scheme designed for high-percentage throws and Flacco already showing he can handle 40 or more attempts, this 251.5 projection looks obviously too low and should get cleared on pure passing volume.

#3 - J. Jacobs: O 60 Rush Yards

Jacobs reminded everyone who he is in Week 1, logging 19 carries for 66 yards and a late touchdown, completely monopolizing the Packers’ backfield with no other running back seeing more than a single carry. He remains a true workhorse on a team committed to running the ball. But the Commanders are the exact defense to attack here. They allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs last season and showed no signs of improvement. Jacobs has a proven track record of smashing soft fronts, clearing 65 or more rushing yards in 12 of his last 13 games whenever he gets at least 13 carries. So with Green Bay funneling everything through him and a matchup against one of the worst rush defenses, 59.5 is an absolute gift and one of the most reliable overs available.

#2 - A. Ekeler: O 3.5 Catches

Ekeler’s Week 1 role may have looked limited with just 9 total touches, but he still caught 3 passes for 31 yards, proving his pass-game usage is alive and well. His efficiency was solid at 6.3 yards per touch, but more importantly, he is entrenched as Washington’s third-down and passing-down back regardless of how carries split with Croskey-Merritt. But this matchup makes the case undeniable. Green Bay just gave up the most running back catches in Week 1 with 14 to the Lions backfield and ranked third-most in running back receptions allowed in 2024. This is not a small leak, it is a consistent weakness. So with Daniels pressured by Micah Parsons and looking for quick dump-offs, Ekeler is going to be fed in the passing game, making 3.5 receptions feel like it should be his halftime total.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. If you want an edge in Week 2, it starts with spotting where the market is off… and getting ahead before everyone else catches up.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe