Way-Too-Early Picks

Football is officially back. Week 1 always brings overreactions and hidden value. Here are my way-too-early picks for every matchup… in two minutes or less.

#5 - J. Daniels: O 34.5 rush yards

Daniels was one of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks in the league last year, averaging 52.4 RUSH YARDS PER GAME with multiple breakout performances. He opened the season with 88 yards on the ground, showing how quickly he can clear this projection when the playbook leans on his legs. He ranked 2ND among all QBs in carries, which cements his usage as a runner and proves this isn’t fluky production—it’s built into Washington’s system. But this matchup amplifies his edge even further. The Giants were a TOP-10 DEFENSE in QB rush yards allowed last season, and Daniels already CRUSHED this number in BOTH games against them.

Combine that with Washington projected to run at the FASTEST PACE IN THE NFL, and it means more snaps, more designed runs, and more broken plays for him to exploit. So this 34.5 projection looks closer to 60 yards in real terms—more than 34.5 feels like one of the easiest calls on the slate.

#4 - T. Henderson: O 59.5 rush+rec yards

Everything about Henderson screams breakout. Patriots insiders are already calling him their potential LEAD OPTION, praising both his explosiveness and his ability to handle passing-down work. He brings a rare combination of big-play ability and efficiency—leading the Big Ten in YARDS PER CARRY (7.1) while also owning the HIGHEST EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE (15+ yards) in this entire rookie RB class. He flashed that immediately in the NFL with a 100-YARD KICK RETURN TD in his preseason debut and a 65-YARD reception on a wheel route in joint practices, showing he can win both as a runner and as a receiver. But what makes him truly dangerous is that his role keeps him on the field no matter the script.

He’s graded as one of the BEST PASS-PROTECTORS among rookie backs, which guarantees passing-down usage. And historically, rookie RBs who see at least 2.5+ targets per game hit 80% of the time against ADP—Henderson is set up to be this year’s version of Gibbs or Achane. So a combined number of 59.5 is laughably low for a player who can break one play at any moment and also rack up steady touches. This is more than 59.5 all day.

#3 - T. McMillan: O 59.4 rec yards

The opportunity couldn’t be clearer. With Adam Thielen traded and Jalen Coker on IR, McMillan steps into an ALPHA ROLE immediately, which means Week 1 he’s the go-to option. The matchup couldn’t set up better: Jacksonville allowed the 3RD-MOST RECEIVING YARDS TO WRS last season, and their secondary was one of the most vulnerable in the league.

They were flat-out 32ND in explosive plays allowed, giving up gains of 20+ yards on 11.4% of dropbacks, a rate that DESTROYED their ability to contain vertical threats. But despite knowing this was a weakness, the Jaguars did little to overhaul their coverage—adding a nickel corner but still ranking as a BOTTOM-3 secondary entering 2025. That means McMillan, who thrives on chunk plays, only needs one or two shots to clear this number. So with volume locked in and the defense handing out deep completions, more than 59.5 isn’t just possible—it’s the obvious play.

#2 - E. Egbuka: O 4.5 Receptions

The path is wide open for Egbuka to step up immediately. With Chris Godwin not expected back until October and Jalen McMillan placed on IR, Tampa has no choice but to funnel early targets his way. That sets him up perfectly against Atlanta. The Falcons allowed the 4TH-MOST receptions to WRs last season and were the 2ND-WORST defense against slot production, a coverage weakness that Egbuka is built to exploit. But it’s not just the coverage—it’s the pace. Atlanta plays at the FASTEST PACE IN THE NFL, which creates one of the highest-volume game environments you’ll find.

That means more dropbacks, more quick throws, and more opportunities for a rookie wideout set to climb fast. So when you combine a thin depth chart, a defense that bleeds receptions, and one of the highest-tempo matchups on the board, more than 4.5 receptions feels like a LOCK.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. If you want an edge in Week 1, it starts with spotting where the market is off… and getting ahead before everyone else catches up.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe