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- ✅ 🏈 Way-Too-Early NFL LOCKS (Week 14)
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Locks of the Week (Week 14)
The goal of the “way-too-early” send is to highlight (quickly) some of the best lines to attack when they first drop. The apps take some time to adjust, typically. So I’m going light on analysis here to make sure you guys get these locked in as early as possible.
#5
👇 S. Barkley: O 101.5 rush yards
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Saquon Barkley is on a TEAR, and this week he gets a DREAM MATCHUP against the Panthers, who have been the WORST in the league against the run. Carolina allows the MOST rushing points per game to backfields, and their 20.6 points per game allowed in this category is LEAGUE-WORST. BUT the recent trends are even more eye-opening—Carolina has been SHREDDED by opposing runners, giving up 190+ yards in four of their last six games, including 269 to Philadelphia and 155 to Washington.
Barkley’s workload remains unmatched, with 23 carries for 117 yards and a touchdown last week, proving he’s the centerpiece of the Eagles’ offense. SO against a defense this bad, Barkley is poised to DOMINATE. This number doesn’t just feel beatable—it feels like a FREE SQUARE. LOCK IT IN.
#4
👇 K. Cousins: O 238.5 pass yards
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Kirk Cousins steps into a REVENGE GAME against Minnesota with everything to prove, and the matchup couldn’t be more favorable. The Vikings have emerged as a PASS-FUNNEL defense, allowing the 5TH-MOST passing yards per game this season. BUT their struggles don’t stop there—they also force the 2ND-MOST wide receiver targets per game, a dynamic that guarantees volume for opposing quarterbacks.
Despite some recent poor performances, Cousins remains a high-volume passer with the ability to exploit weaknesses in coverage. Minnesota’s secondary is far from elite, giving up 8.0 yards per target to wide receivers (19TH-WORST), which opens the door for chunk plays. SO with added motivation in this revenge spot and a matchup tailor-made for passing success, Cousins should CLEAR this projection comfortably. This one feels OBVIOUS.
#3
👇 D. London: O 66.5 rec yards
Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Drake London’s role as the Falcons' go-to receiver is UNTOUCHABLE, and this week he faces a Vikings secondary that has been TORCHED all season long. Minnesota allows the 3RD-MOST receiving yards to wide receivers, a glaring weakness that plays directly into London’s strengths. BUT it’s not just about yards—the Vikings face the 2ND-MOST wide receiver targets per game, providing London with a steady stream of opportunities.
Last week, London saw 16 targets, a testament to his central role in Atlanta’s passing game even amidst quarterback struggles. Minnesota’s defense continues to bleed production to wideouts, ranking 31ST in volume allowed to receivers and consistently failing to adjust. SO with London’s elite usage and a matchup that screams upside, this projection is a LOCK. Expect him to CRUSH this number.
#2
👇 A. Kamara: O 72.5 rush yards
Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Alvin Kamara is a WORKHORSE, and this week’s matchup against the Giants sets the stage for a MASSIVE performance. New York’s run defense is the WORST in the league, allowing an abysmal 5.08 yards per carry to running backs. BUT the recent tre
nds are even more damning. Over their last six games, the Giants have surrendered totals like 190+ rushing yards to Pittsburgh, 208 to Tampa Bay, and an INSANE 269 to Philadelphia. This defense isn’t just struggling—they’re getting CRUSHED week after week.
Kamara’s workload remains elite, averaging 20+ touches per game, making him perfectly positioned to exploit the Giants' glaring weaknesses. While New York has also struggled to contain backs in the passing game, the focus here is clear: they can’t stop anyone on the ground. SO with Kamara coming off another high-volume week and facing a defense that has been consistently steamrolled, this projection is WAY TOO LOW. Kamara SMASHES this number with ease.
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