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Locks of the Week (Week 10)

#6

👇 B. Purdy: O 240.5 pass yards

Partners: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Brock Purdy is set up for a big game against Tampa Bay, who ranks 29th in passing points allowed and 3rd in most passing yards given up per game. Not only that, but the Bucs are forcing the 4th-most pass attempts in the league, which gives Purdy plenty of chances to clear 240.5 yards. He’s got the matchup advantage, and Tampa’s secondary has been vulnerable all season. This line is too low for what Purdy is likely to produce in this one. Take the over with confidence

#5

👇 M. Nabers: O 65.5 rec yards

Partners: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

The Panthers’ defense is in shambles when it comes to covering outside receivers, ranked 30th in points allowed to that position. With Carolina allowing 9.6 yards per target—the 5th most in the league—Malik Nabers is in a prime spot to blow past 65.5 receiving yards. This matchup is a gift for him, and he’s likely to rack up yards with ease against one of the weakest secondaries in the league. This line won’t stay low for long, so lock in Nabers to hit the over

#4

👇 T. Tracy: O 66.5 rush yards

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Carolina’s run defense has been an absolute disaster all season, ranking dead last in rushing yards allowed per game. They just gave up 155 rushing yards to Alvin Kamara, and Tyrone Tracy is positioned to keep that trend going. With a soft matchup against the league’s worst run-stopping unit, Tracy’s 66.5 rushing line looks like an easy number for him to clear. He’ll have every opportunity to go off in this game, so take the over with confidence.

#3

👇 S. Darnold: O 254.5 pass yards

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

The Jaguars’ defense ranks 2nd-worst in passing yards allowed, so this 254.5 line for Sam Darnold feels like a gift. Darnold should have no trouble hitting the over with Jacksonville’s secondary in shambles. But here’s the kicker: the Jags also play man coverage 41% of the time, 2nd most in the NFL, which sets up Darnold for big plays downfield. Expect him to easily clear 254.5 passing yards. This is one of those lines you don’t want to miss—lock it in.

#2

👇 J. Jefferson: O 84.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Jacksonville’s man coverage is 2nd-highest in the league, and no one torches man coverage like Justin Jefferson. He’s averaging an insane 3.65 yards per route against it, with a 42% target share in those situations. The Jags are also ranked 31st in passing points allowed per attempt, which only makes this matchup even better for Jefferson. With 88.5 as the line, he’s in a prime position to hit the over and make this look easy. Jefferson is a lock here—expect his line to get bumped before kickoff.