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Josh Allen’s rushing volume spikes in high-pressure environments, and this matchup forces him out of structure.

• Cleared 7.5 rush attempts in three straight playoff games, averaging nearly 11 carries in that span
• Denver blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league, increasing scramble and designed run opportunities
• Trey Lance logged nine rush attempts for 69 yards against Denver in Week 18, showing how pressure turns into QB carries

When heavy blitzing collapses the pocket, Allen’s rushing volume clears this number naturally.

Christian McCaffrey’s receiving role expands when coverage tightens, and this matchup feeds that usage.

• Averaging 72 receiving yards per game over his last five games when George Kittle is out
• Averaged 53.5 receiving yards and 7.5 receptions in two games versus Seattle this season
• Seattle allowed the most receptions to running backs in football this season

When a defense funnels throws to the backfield, McCaffrey’s receiving floor pushes this number past the mark. My #1 pick is a different RB who’s looking to find the end-zone.

Rhamondre Stevenson’s pass-game involvement has become a weekly constant, and the matchup reinforces it.

• Cleared 19.5 receiving yards in six straight games, including 75 yards in the opening playoff round
• Running backs accounted for 22.9 percent of Houston’s receptions allowed, the sixth-highest rate in the league
• Houston allowed 5.9 yards per target and 7.5 yards per reception to running backs, both ranking 22nd, with Kenneth Gainwell producing 26 receiving yards on four catches last week

When running backs are consistently featured through the air against this defense, Stevenson’s number stays within reach.

Puka Nacua’s role continues to generate explosive plays, and the defensive matchup makes it unavoidable.

• Finished with 111 receiving yards on 18 targets last week, showing sustained downfield involvement
• Chicago allows 9.1 yards per target to receivers, the third-worst mark in the league
• The Bears allow a 51 percent catch rate on throws of 20 or more yards to receivers, the second-worst rate, and surrendered multiple 30-plus yard receptions last week

When a defense struggles this badly downfield, Nacua needs only one clean look to clear this number.

My #1 pick is below. And just a reminder, yesterday's top pick was Pat Friermuth Under 34.5 receiving yards. He finished with 1 catch for 18 yards, meaning that was an easy cash. 

Check out the #1 pick below.