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Stefon Diggs’ scoring profile has thinned out, and the matchup further suppresses his touchdown path.

• Scored just five total touchdowns across 19 games this season
• Plays 52% of his snaps from the slot, where Denver has allowed just one touchdown all year
• Denver allowed the fewest wide receiver touchdowns during the regular season, giving up only six

When scoring volume is already limited and the defense erases slot touchdowns, finding the end zone becomes unlikely.

TreVeyon Henderson’s role has shifted, but his rushing workload remains steady enough to clear a modest yardage number.

• Has surpassed this mark in nine of his last 12 games
• Logged 12 rushing attempts against Houston last week despite playing behind Stevenson
• Denver allowed James Cook to rush for 117 yards last week, showing vulnerability on the ground

When volume stays intact and the matchup softens, Henderson’s rushing yardage follows. My #1 pick is another player looking to take advantage in the ground game, but it's somebody you wouldn’t expect.

Courtland Sutton’s explosive-play outlook takes a major hit given the quarterback situation and matchup.

• Jarrett Stidham has not thrown a pass in a game in over two years, and went 1-for-4 for 2 yards to Sutton in his last start
• New England has allowed just two wide receiver catches of 20+ yards through the first two playoff games
• With Christian Gonzalez on the field, the Patriots allow just 6.8 yards per target, which would rank fourth in the NFL

When quarterback uncertainty meets one of the league’s toughest big-play defenses, explosive catches disappear.

Rhamondre Stevenson’s workload continues to separate him from the rest of the backfield.

• Has cleared this number in seven straight games, averaging 100 total yards per game over that span
• Out-touched Henderson 20 to 13 last week against Houston
• Denver allowed 174 total yards to the Bills’ backfield last week

When touch advantage meets a defense leaking backfield production, total yards pile up quickly.

Puka Nacua continues to dominate target share, keeping his reception floor extremely high.

• Averaging 8.5 receptions over his last six games
• Averaged 9.5 receptions and 150 receiving yards across two games against Seattle this season
• Has seen double-digit targets in seven straight games

When volume stays elite and matchups don’t disrupt usage, receptions stack naturally.

Matthew Stafford’s volume profile spikes in these environments, and the matchup encourages a pass-heavy script.

• Has exceeded 36 pass attempts in six straight games, including a season-high 49 against Seattle
• Has surpassed 36 attempts in seven of his last eight playoff games, averaging 39.3 per game
• Seattle forces the fifth-most passing attempts in the NFL

When game flow pushes aggression and volume trends hold, Stafford’s attempts clear comfortably.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role has translated directly into elite yardage production.

• Led the NFL in receiving yards this season, averaging 105 yards per game
• Averaged 7.5 receptions and 100 receiving yards in two games against the Rams this year
• Los Angeles allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season

When matchup history and season-long dominance align, yardage ceilings stay high.

Kyren Williams’ receiving usage has stabilized as he reclaims control of the backfield.

• Has cleared this number in five straight games, averaging 24 receiving yards over that span
• Logged 25 total touches last week compared to six for Blake Corum, reasserting workload control
• Seattle allowed the most receptions to running backs in the NFL this season

When backfield control returns and the matchup feeds RB targets, receiving yards follow.

Both top picks Drake Maye: Under 7.5 Rush Attempts and Colby Parkinson: Over 20.5 receiving yards cashed yesterday.

Maye finished with 4 Attempts and Parkinson finished with 56 receiving yards.

My next #1 pick is below.