MIN @ PIT

Football goes global. Vikings vs. Steelers kick off in Ireland, and I’ve found the best numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less.

#5 - J. Mason: O 69.5 Rushing Yards

Mason is operating as the clear lead back, handling 76% of backfield touches last week, and he made the most of it by piling up 116 yards on 16 carries in just three quarters, BUT the matchup makes this spot even juicier. Mason thrives in outside-zone runs, ranking 6TH in attempts league-wide and averaging a ridiculous 6.1 yards per carry on those plays.

That’s exactly where the Steelers struggle, having allowed the 4TH-MOST rushing yards on outside-zone plays, while giving up first downs or touchdowns on nearly a quarter of those attempts. And this isn’t a one-week sample. Pittsburgh has already been gashed for TWO 100-YARD rushers in just three games, proving their vulnerability against true workhorse usage. SO with elite scheme fit, top-end efficiency, and a defense that keeps getting exposed, Mason is lined up to CRUSH this projection and put together another big day.

#4 - T. Hockenson: O 36.5 Receiving Yards

Hockenson’s role is locked in with Carson Wentz under center, drawing 25% of team targets and seeing 6 looks last week alone, BUT the matchup is what makes this number laughably low. The Steelers have been one of the WORST defenses against tight ends, giving up the 6TH-MOST receiving yards to the position and ranking bottom-2 in touchdown rate allowed (13%).

Just last week, they were DESTROYED by Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper, who combined for 10 catches, 118 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Hockenson already cleared this projection last week with 49 yards on 6 targets, and his usage spike with Wentz shows he’s the safety valve when protection breaks down. SO with volume on his side and Pittsburgh showing they cannot cover tight ends, Hockenson’s floor alone clears this projection. It feels like one of the safest picks on the board.

#3 - J. Warren: U 74.5 Rushing Yards

Warren has yet to flash any upside as a runner. He hasn’t topped 50 rushing yards in ANY game this season, BUT the inefficiency runs even deeper. He’s averaging just 3.1 yards per carry (34TH among RBs) with a league-bottom 2.3% explosive run rate (35TH), meaning big plays simply don’t exist in his profile.

Pittsburgh’s ground game isn’t helping either. Their running backs gain 5+ yards on only the 31ST-BEST rate in the league, leaving little chance for Warren to pile up volume yards. The opponent makes it worse. Minnesota has been a brick wall, allowing the FEWEST red-zone drives in the NFL (22.2%), and just last week they held the entire Bengals offense to only 53 total yards, including 41 rushing from backs and a brutal 3 yards from Chase Brown. SO with efficiency this low and facing a defense this dominant, expecting Warren to hit 75 yards is unrealistic. This number is way too high.

#2 - A. Rodgers: O 0.5 INTs

Rodgers has been careless with the football lately, throwing 3 interceptions in his last 2 games, BUT the matchup against Minnesota makes this even more dangerous. The Vikings bring the 2ND-HIGHEST PRESSURE RATE in the NFL (49%), and Rodgers completely collapses under pressure. He has a 32.0 passer rating in those situations, ranking 30TH among QBs, and completes just 27% of his throws. That’s the WORST efficiency in the league against one of the most aggressive defenses.

Protection isn’t helping him either, with nearly 80% of his pressures credited directly to the offensive line, which is a nightmare against a blitz-heavy unit. And this isn’t new. Rodgers already tossed 3 interceptions against Minnesota last season in London, showing this defense knows exactly how to bait him into mistakes. SO when you combine recent turnover trends with the pressure mismatch, another interception feels almost automatic.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Across the pond or not, the edge is locking in these numbers before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA