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Thursday Night Football picks (GB @ DET)

#5

👇 S. LaPorta: O 2.5 rec

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Sam LaPorta has emerged as a dependable and efficient option for the Lions, and this week’s matchup against Green Bay sets him up for success. The Packers allow the 2ND-HIGHEST COMPLETION RATE TO TIGHT ENDS THIS SEASON (83.7%), making them one of the most forgiving defenses against the position. LaPorta is forecasted for 5.3 TARGETS, placing him in the 86TH PERCENTILE AMONG TIGHT ENDS, a testament to his growing role in Detroit’s offense. But the Packers don’t just allow completions—they’ve also given up the 28TH-MOST RECEPTIONS PER GAME TO TIGHT ENDS (6.0), signaling consistent struggles to limit volume.

The Lions are projected to run the 6TH-MOST OFFENSIVE PLAYS THIS WEEK (66.5), creating even more opportunities for LaPorta to thrive in a high-tempo environment. His 78.3% ADJUSTED CATCH RATE this year highlights his reliability and ability to convert opportunities into production. So with Detroit operating in ideal conditions, against a defense that has struggled all season against tight ends, this projection is WAY TOO LOW.

#4

👇 A. St. Brown: O 59.5 rec yards

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Amon-Ra St. Brown is the engine of Detroit’s passing attack, commanding a 28.4% TARGET SHARE (97TH PERCENTILE) and projecting for 10.4 TARGETS THIS WEEK, the 2ND-MOST AMONG ALL WIDEOUTS. Green Bay has struggled mightily to defend slot receivers, allowing 8.3 YARDS PER TARGET TO THE SLOT, where St. Brown does most of his damage. But this isn’t just about the matchup—St. Brown has averaged 7 CATCHES AND 69 YARDS IN HIS LAST THREE MEETINGS WITH GREEN BAY, consistently delivering against this division rival.

The Lions’ dome environment ensures optimal conditions for the passing game, further boosting St. Brown’s chances to thrive. So with his elite target share, efficiency, and matchup history, this number is set to be DOMINATED.

#3

👇 J. Reed: O 3.5 rec

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Jayden Reed is perfectly positioned to crush this number against a Lions defense that has been shredded by slot receivers all year. Detroit allows the MOST RECEPTIONS PER GAME TO SLOT RECEIVERS (7.1), and Reed runs 72.4% OF HIS ROUTES FROM THE SLOT, maximizing his exposure to this glaring weakness. But this isn’t just a matchup on paper—Reed already delivered against the Lions in Week 9, posting 113 YARDS AND 5 CATCHES, with 81 OF THOSE YARDS COMING FROM THE SLOT.

The Packers are projected to be the 8TH-MOST PASS-HEAVY TEAM THIS WEEK with a 61.8% PASS RATE, driven by their underdog status and a game script favoring passing volume. Reed also saw his HIGHEST TARGET SHARE SINCE WEEK 5 (21.4%) last week, showing an upward trend in his involvement. So with Detroit’s slot vulnerabilities and Reed’s proven ability to exploit this matchup, this number feels like an OBVIOUS LOCK.

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