DAL @ PHI

Football is officially back. The market always slips on a few players, and tonight’s Thursday night matchup is no different. Here are my final picks… in two minutes or less.

#6 - S. Barkley: O 19.5 Longest Rush

Barkley cleared this number in 13 games last season, and he did it because of volume and explosion. He handled 64.6% of his team’s rushing work (96TH PERCENTILE), averaging 118 rushing yards per game (100TH PERCENTILE) at an elite 5.5 yards per carry clip. That workload and efficiency prove he doesn’t just grind, he creates big plays at will.

The matchup is tailor-made for another one. The Cowboys allowed the 2ND-WORST yards per carry in the NFL last year, and their defensive tackles graded as the 6TH-WORST run-stopping unit in football. Against a defense that consistently bleeds explosive runs, one 20-yard burst from Barkley isn’t just possible, it’s OBVIOUS.

#5 - D. Prescott: O 33.5 Passing Attempts

Dallas enters this game as a 7.5-point underdog, which forces them into the 4TH-MOST pass-heavy script of the week at a 61.4% rate. They also play fast, ranking as the 8TH-FASTEST team in neutral pace at 27.7 seconds per play. Add in that the Eagles are projected for the 6TH-MOST offensive plays this week (65.8), and the setup points to more volume across the board.

Dak himself is projected for the 6TH-MOST pass attempts of any QB this week at 36.4. And with the Cowboys’ O-line ranked as the 10TH-WORST in pass protection, running consistently isn’t realistic. In a game script that demands chasing points, Prescott clearing 34 passes isn’t just likely, it’s the SCRIPT.

#4 - D. Smith: O 39.5 Receiving Yards

Smith averaged 64 receiving yards per game last season while running a route on 96% of Philly’s pass plays (96TH PERCENTILE). He also graded out as one of the most reliable WRs in football, catching passes at an 80.8% adjusted rate (98TH PERCENTILE efficiency). The foundation is already there, volume, consistency, and efficiency.

Now the matchup tilts even further in his favor. The Cowboys’ safeties ranked as the 9TH-WORST coverage unit in the league, and their pass defense allowed the 9TH-HIGHEST adjusted completion rate to WRs (67.5%). With Dallas leaning heavier into zone looks, which funnel opportunities away from AJ Brown, Smith is positioned to capitalize. A projection of 40 yards is WAY TOO LOW.

#3 - J. Hurts: O 0.5 Rushing TDs

Hurts has scored a rushing TD in 11 of his last 14 games, and that consistency is what makes this pick so strong. The Eagles are set to be the MOST run-heavy offense of Week 1 at a 50.5% rate, and Hurts handles 25% of the team’s rushing attempts (96TH PERCENTILE among QBs). He’s not just a scrambler; he’s a designed red-zone weapon.

The Cowboys defense plays right into that. They gave up the MOST rushing TDs in football last season, and their defensive tackles graded out as the 6TH-WORST in run defense. When you pair Hurts’ workload with a defense that collapses at the goal line, this isn’t just a lean, it’s the BIGGEST LOCK on the board.

#2 - J. Elliott: O 5.5 Kicking Points

Philly enters Week 1 with the HIGHEST team total in the NFL, which is always the top angle for kickers. They’re projected to run the 6TH-MOST offensive plays this week at 65.8, after already ranking 3RD in pace last year at 60.1 plays per game. That level of volume all but guarantees scoring chances.

And Elliott thrives in this setup. He’s tied to one of the league’s most efficient, run-centric red-zone scripts, and projections show the Eagles generating top-tier red-zone trips this week. With so many scoring opportunities in the game with the highest total on the slate, needing six points feels AUTOMATIC.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Football is officially back, and the fastest way to win is spotting the bad numbers… before everyone else does. 

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe