WAS @ GB

The market always slips on a few players, and tonight’s Thursday night matchup is no different. Here are my final picks… in two minutes or less.

#6 - D. Samuel: O 39.5 Receiving Yards

Deebo exploded for 77 yards last week, but this isn’t just about one hot game. The Packers run zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and that’s the exact split where Deebo’s role spikes. Projections have him in the 79th percentile for targets this week at 7.1, meaning he’s set up for steady volume. Green Bay has also been beatable underneath and in the intermediate range, allowing the 8th highest adjusted completion rate to WRs since last season.

Washington ranks 4th in overall play volume since last year, locking in more passing opportunities and creating a perfect setup for Deebo to stay busy. So this 39.5 projection is way too low for a player who is tailor-made to thrive against this coverage look. Expect Deebo to crush this number again.

#5 - T. McLaurin: U 29.5 Longest Reception

McLaurin can always threaten deep, but this is the exact matchup that neutralizes that strength. The Packers rank as a top 5 defense against explosive passes to wide receivers and have limited deep-ball production all year. Washington also projects as the 10th least pass-heavy team on this slate with just a 56.9 percent expected pass rate, and this game is forecasted to run at the 4th slowest pace, limiting total play volume.

Green Bay’s 3rd best cornerback unit against deep routes puts another lid on the chances of a chunk play connecting. So this longest reception number feels like a lock for the under. The big shot just isn’t coming in this matchup.

#4 - J. Jacobs: O 0.5 Total Touchdowns

Jacobs has scored in ten straight games, but the usage and game environment make it almost certain that the streak continues. He owns a 64.7 percent carry share, 96th percentile among RBs, controlling nearly every red-zone touch. The Packers are favored by 3 points, setting up a positive game script, and Washington surrendered the 4th most rushing touchdowns last season.

Even with Washington’s linebackers grading out as the number one run-stopping unit, they’ve still been vulnerable near the goal line where Jacobs dominates. So this isn’t just a good spot, it’s an obvious one. Expect him to punch it in again and keep the touchdown streak alive.

#3 - A. Ekeler: O 2.5 Receptions

Ekeler is one of the NFL’s most reliable receiving backs, but this matchup is a gift. Just last week, Detroit’s backfield destroyed the Packers for 14 catches, continuing a trend that saw Green Bay allow the 3rd most receptions to RBs all of last season.

Ekeler ranks in the 93rd percentile in target share among RBs and averages 31 receiving yards per game, good for the 98th percentile, paired with elite efficiency at 9.26 yards per target, literally 100th percentile. So this number feels free. Expect him to clear 2.5 receptions with ease, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he does it by halftime.

#2 - B. McManus: O 5.5 Kicking Points

This one is as simple as it gets. Green Bay enters the week with one of the highest implied team totals, which means multiple scoring drives are expected. The Packers’ slower-paced, controlled offensive style projects them at the lowest play volume on the slate, 61.9, which usually creates more field goal attempts than quick touchdowns.

Washington’s defense also ranks in the top half of the league in red-zone touchdown prevention, which further boosts field goal chances. So McManus clearing 5.5 isn’t just likely, it’s about as automatic as it gets in this game environment.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Football is officially back, and the fastest way to win is spotting the bad numbers… before everyone else does. 

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe