SF @ LAR

The lights are on in the West. 49ers vs. Rams is a rivalry game packed with hidden edges—here are my best picks… in two minutes or less.

#6 - P. Nacua: O 79.5 Receiving Yards

Puka Nacua is rewriting the start of his career, LEADING THE NFL in targets (50), receptions (42), and receiving yards (503) through just 4 games. That type of dominance is rare, BUT it looks even stronger when you realize he’s already posted 147 and 97 yards in his only two full games against San Francisco. The 49ers have ranked top-10 in efficiency against receivers, BUT that’s come against weaker quarterback play, not someone feeding a WR at a 41.7% target rate.

So when you match Nacua’s elite 4.19 yards per route run with Stafford’s clean-pocket volume, the projection under 80 feels like a gift. This is a player averaging well over 100 yards per week, and against a defense that hasn’t seen his level yet, it feels like an OBVIOUS green light.

#5 - C. McCaffrey: O 48.5 Receiving Yards

Christian McCaffrey has been San Francisco’s most reliable receiver, not just their running back. He holds a 29.3% target share, the HIGHEST of any RB and 8TH among all players in the league, and his 305 receiving yards rank 1ST among backs and 7TH overall. That’s WR1-level production, BUT it’s paired with consistency, as he’s cleared 46 yards through the air in EVERY game this season.

The 49ers are missing multiple wideouts, which means CMC’s role as a receiver is even more critical. The Rams have allowed the FEWEST RB fantasy points overall, BUT they haven’t had to deal with a pass-catching weapon at this level. So when the volume and matchup need collide, McCaffrey’s path to more than 48.5 through the air is as straightforward as it gets.

#4 - D. Adams: O 14.5 Longest Reception

Davante Adams continues to deliver explosive plays, recording at least one catch of 20+ yards in EVERY game this season. He’s averaged over 31 yards on his longest reception across his last 5, proving his ability to create downfield even in lower-volume games. BUT the bigger picture is his usage, he owns a 26.3% target share and a LEAGUE-HIGH 90% of Rams’ end-zone looks, making him the clear big-play and scoring option.

The Rams secondary has given up 356 yards and 3 touchdowns to WRs in the last two weeks without Ahkello Witherspoon, and Adams doesn’t need much space to flip a game. So whether it’s a deep shot or a red-zone fade, one target can CRUSH this projection. For a WR with his role and proven explosiveness, this feels like one of the safest plays on the board.

#3 -M. Stafford: O 27.5 Pass Attempts

Matthew Stafford is averaging 34 pass attempts per game, already clearing this projection comfortably. The Rams run the MOST plays under center (60.2%), where motion and play action drive Stafford’s efficiency, BUT the real separator here is protection. When he’s clean, he completes 77.5% of passes at 8.2 yards per attempt with 6 touchdowns.

The 49ers rank just 21ST in pressure rate this season, and without Nick Bosa in Week 4 they dropped all the way to DEAD LAST at 16.1%. So Stafford should have time, volume, and rhythm on his side. With this number set in the high 20s, and Stafford consistently throwing into the mid-30s, this projection is simply out of line.

#2 - J. Karty: O 5.5 Kicking Points

The Rams enter the week with a TOP-4 projected team total, which means frequent scoring opportunities. Stafford’s efficiency in moving the ball under McVay’s system has turned drives into consistent points, BUT this contest is also one of the HIGHEST TOTAL games on the slate, creating more chances for field goals and extra points.

Karty benefits from that environment directly. We sit at 9-1 this year, and the Rams’ scoring projection lines up perfectly for another hit. So with volume guaranteed through team scoring, more than 5.5 points is well within range and one of the easiest spots to trust.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. 49ers–Rams always delivers chaos—lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA