SEA @ ARI

The lights are on for Seahawks vs. Cardinals. Weeknight football means hidden edges, and I’ve locked in my top play… in two minutes or less.

#6 - J. Smith-Njigba: O 69.5 Receiving Yards

Smith-Njigba has CRUSHED this projection in every single game, immediately establishing himself as the centerpiece of Seattle’s passing attack. He owns a 40.3% TARGET SHARE, the HIGHEST start for any wide receiver through three games in the 2000s, and a staggering 60% of his team’s AIR YARDS, the BEST mark in the league right now. That level of usage is unheard of, and it signals he’s functioning as a true WR1 in every sense.

But Arizona happens to run the MOST Cover 4 in the NFL, and against that exact coverage, JSN has been virtually unstoppable. He’s posted a 62% TARGET RATE in those looks and has gone 8-for-8 for 103 yards, proving PERFECT efficiency against the same scheme he’ll face on Thursday. So when you pair elite, historic usage with a matchup tailor-made for his strengths, this number feels WAY TOO LOW. Add in the fact that Arizona’s secondary is thin with Garrett Williams on IR and depth is stretched and it’s OBVIOUS this is another spot where Smith-Njigba will DESTROY his projection.

#5 - T. Benson: O 21.5 Receiving Yards

Benson didn’t just slide into James Conner’s role; he immediately took over the entire Arizona backfield, playing 83.9% of the snaps and running routes on 80% of dropbacks. That’s elite usage right out of the gate, especially for a rookie stepping into a high-volume situation. He handled 8 of 10 backfield touches after Conner left, showing the coaching staff has zero hesitation to put the offense in his hands.

But Seattle has been a GIFT for running backs in the passing game, allowing the 2ND MOST RECEIVING POINTS to RBs this year. That’s an exact matchup weakness Benson can exploit, especially since Kyler Murray targets his backs at the 7TH HIGHEST rate in the NFL. Arizona’s rushing attack has been inefficient, but Benson’s explosiveness adds a new wrinkle with a 10+ yard run on 14.3% of attempts, one of the best marks among all RBs. So if the ground game stalls, checkdowns and screens become the engine, and with Benson dominating routes and usage, this projection looks like a FREE SQUARE.

#4 - T. McBride: O 5.5 Receptions

McBride is operating with usage that no other tight end in football can match. Through three weeks, he’s run a route on 94.4% of Arizona’s dropbacks, the HIGHEST rate in the league, and owns a massive 27.3% TARGET SHARE, also the BEST at the position. He’s essentially functioning as the Cardinals’ WR1 in disguise, and the workload is undeniable.

But Seattle is the exact defense you want to face if you’re a volume-heavy tight end. They’ve allowed the MOST fantasy points to TEs this season, and they funnel throws inside with tight ends absorbing the 6TH HIGHEST target share against them. The proof is already in the history too: McBride DESTROYED this matchup last season, racking up 29 targets across two games with monster lines of 12-133 and 7-70. So when you combine elite usage, a defense that bleeds production to the position, and proven domination in this exact matchup, 5.5 receptions feels like an OBVIOUS LOCK.

#3 - K. Murray: U 39.5 Rushing Yards

Murray has always been known for his legs, averaging 35.6 rushing yards per game this year. But Seattle has quietly been one of the TOP 5 defenses against mobile QBs since 2023, making them one of the toughest spots in football for quarterback rushing production. They’re also the ONLY team left in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season, further proving how disciplined their containment has been.

And the direct matchup history is even more telling. Murray managed just 9 and 16 rushing yards in two meetings with Seattle last year, barely combining to hit half of this number. Arizona’s offense doesn’t do him many favors either, as they run at the 2ND HIGHEST neutral dropback rate in the league, keeping the ball in the air rather than leaning on designed runs. So even though Murray provides some rushing floor, this defense forces quick throws and eliminates scramble lanes, making 39.5 feel like a PROJECTION THAT DOESN’T BELONG.

#2 - C. Ryland: O 0.5 FG Made

Sometimes the easiest plays are the best ones, and this is one of them. Ryland needs just ONE field goal, and the matchup is perfectly built for it. Seattle’s defense has forced the 4TH MOST field goal attempts in the NFL by clamping down in the red zone but giving up yardage between the 20s. That “bend but don’t break” style has been consistent all season.

But Arizona’s offensive profile makes it even better. They play at the SLOWEST pace in the league at 33.0 seconds per snap, and they’ve turned just 18.5% of drives into touchdowns, one of the lowest rates in football. Pair that with Seattle’s league-low 1.34 points allowed per drive, and you have the perfect setup for stalled possessions that end in kicks. So with our kicker picks already on a 7-0 run, this is as close to automatic as it gets. Ryland just needs one, and he’ll get it.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Seahawks–Cardinals can swing fast, lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA