PHI @ NYG

Rivalry night in the NFC East. Eagles vs. Giants under the lights means hidden value everywhere. Here are my top plays… in two minutes or less.

#6 - C. Skattebo: O 12.5 Receiving Yards

Skattebo has been one of the most active pass-catching backs in the league, ranking 6TH in receptions per game (3.6) and 11TH in yards per catch (7.9), and that steady volume now meets a defense that’s BOTTOM 10 against RBs in the passing game. The Eagles have allowed the 8TH MOST receiving yards to running backs, repeatedly giving up soft completions underneath due to their high man coverage and blitz frequency (TOP 10 in both).

But this isn’t just about matchup, it’s about game flow. The Giants enter as 7-POINT UNDERDOGS, and trailing game scripts have pushed Skattebo into more passing-down usage and hurry-up sets where he thrives. Even with Tyrone Tracy returning, the “passing role” is firmly Skattebo’s, as he’s been the checkdown valve in nearly every third-down situation, handling 75–80% of the backfield touches in Tracy’s absence. Against a defense that allows a first down or TD on 29% of opponent runs (3RD WORST), New York’s offense will lean on short passes to stay ahead of the sticks. So 12.5 yards is comically low for a player who could clear this on one screen; this number feels free.

#5 -J. Hurts: O 23.5 Pass Attempts

Hurts has cleared this number in three straight games, averaging 31.3 attempts per game, and the Eagles’ offensive philosophy has clearly flipped. Last week, they posted a LEAGUE-HIGH 81.8% dropback rate, a massive shift from their early-season identity that leaned run heavy at just 53 to 58% in prior weeks. But what really stands out is that they did this against one of the TOP PASS DEFENSES in football (Denver) and still managed 280 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The Giants’ defense creates the exact environment that forces high passing volume, as they play MAN COVERAGE on 38% of snaps (3RD HIGHEST) and blitz 29% of the time (TOP 10), two traits that historically push opposing QBs to throw more often. Hurts has been elite when facing man coverage, posting a 125.0 PASSER RATING (8TH BEST) with 5 TDs and 0 INTs this season, and he’s thrown the ball 19% above expectation in his most recent outing. So, even if Philly tries to balance the offense early, the Giants’ defensive pressure and single coverage will dictate another high-volume passing script. The 23.5 attempt projection is absurdly low for a quarterback averaging over 30 attempts in a pass-favorable setup.

#4 - A. Brown: O 44.5 Receiving Yards

Brown’s frustration is building, but the usage tells the real story. He’s earned 8+ targets in four straight games, commanding a 31.3% target share and 39.2% of the Eagles’ air yards, elite WR1 volume even without the box score results. But now he gets a dream get-right matchup: the Giants have allowed the MOST receptions and 2ND MOST receiving yards to wide receivers this year.

They play man coverage on over one-third of snaps (3RD HIGHEST), and Brown dominates in those looks, being targeted on 33% of routes vs man and averaging 2.23 yards per route run, both elite marks. The Giants have also been torched by physical wideouts, giving up big games to Quentin Johnston (8-98-1) and George Pickens (5-68-1 with two DPIs), and they’ve struggled downfield, allowing 50% of deep targets to connect (26TH in NFL). Even if the Eagles start conservative, Brown’s mismatch potential on slants and posts against single coverage should force volume his way. With Hurts’ accuracy surging vs man (125.0 rating), this setup screams rebound. 44.5 yards feels like a glitch for a player this talented in a coverage matchup this vulnerable.

#3 -D. Smith: O 34.5 Receiving Yards

Smith finally reminded everyone how dangerous he is, posting 8 catches for 114 yards last week on 10 targets, and that performance came directly after public frustration about his usage. The shift was clear, as he’s had a 27%+ target share in 3 of the last 4 games, and when teams focus on Brown, Smith’s ability to win inside and deep becomes the release valve.

The Giants have allowed the MOST receptions and 2ND MOST yards to WRs this season, and their coverage scheme (heavy man and blitz, 3RD HIGHEST man rate in the NFL) plays directly into Smith’s strengths. Hurts targets wideouts on 71% of dropbacks vs man (TOP 5 rate), and Smith’s efficiency spikes to 2.0 yards per route run in those looks. The proof is in precedent, as secondary WRs have repeatedly torched this defense, with Deebo Samuel (7-77), Rashid Shaheed (4-114), and Tyquan Thornton (5-71) all exceeding this number easily. Even if Brown commands top coverage, Smith’s route-running and volume keep him in line for another strong night. 34.5 is laughably low for a player who just proved he can break 100 with the same exact usage pattern.

#2 - J. Elliott: O 4.5 Kicking Points

Philly’s offense has quietly become one of the most reliable sources of kicking volume in football. The Eagles own a 24.25 implied team total, but their red-zone execution has been shaky, failing to gain a first down on 47.2% of drives (WORST in the NFL) and ranking LAST in explosive play rate (13.2% of plays gaining 10+ yards). That means drives sustain but stall, a dream scenario for a kicker like Elliott.

The Giants’ defense ranks TOP 10 in opponent play volume, allowing sustained possessions but tightening up near the red zone. This keeps opponents out of the end zone and forces field goal attempts instead. The Eagles have been out-gained in every game this year and still find ways to generate points, a trend that consistently translates into FG opportunities. Elliott has been nearly automatic this season, and in a divisional matchup where Philly is a touchdown favorite, they should generate multiple scoring drives even if they sputter near the goal line. This projection is way too low for an offense that can’t finish drives and a kicker who keeps bailing them out.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. NFC East battles swing fast, and the edge is grabbing the soft numbers early.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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