NYJ @ NE

The lights are on in Foxborough. Jets vs. Patriots might look old-school, but the data says there’s still plenty of fantasy upside… in two minutes or less

#5 - D. Maye: O 14.5 Rush Yards

Maye’s legs have quietly become one of the most bankable cheat codes in DFS. He’s averaged 36.3 rush yards over his last four games, creating explosive gains even when his passing rhythm dips. The matchup perfectly fits that profile, as the Jets play man coverage at the eighth-highest rate, a look that triggers Maye’s natural scrambling instincts. But that’s exactly where he’s been most dangerous: Maye owns a league-high 14 percent scramble rate versus man, converting broken plays into chain-movers and highlight runs.

New York’s front isn’t built to contain mobile quarterbacks either. They rank 31st in pressure rate, rarely forcing him to stay in the pocket, and sit 29th in quarterback rushing yards allowed overall. Even when he’s not pressured, he’s completing nearly 79 percent of his throws and averaging 9.0 yards per attempt, keeping defenses in constant conflict. So when the Jets play man and lose contain, Maye’s running lanes will open all night, and this projection looks way too low given both his form and their coverage tendencies.

#4 - S. Diggs: O 4.5 Targets

The arrow is back up on Diggs’ volume, and the data backs it across every level. He played on a season-high 77.8 percent of dropbacks last week and remains one of the league’s most efficient route-runners, commanding a 24.5 percent target rate and producing 2.22 yards per route run. The coverage matchup is what makes this a smash spot. The Jets played man coverage on a season-high 41.4 percent of snaps last week, and when they line up that way, Diggs’ usage spikes.

Against man, he earns a 29 percent target rate with nearly three yards per route run, ranking among the elite in separation and timing routes. His ceiling expands further because New England’s offense sustains long possessions, ranking third in passing success rate, which means more opportunities for receivers to stack targets. Without Kayshon Boutte, Diggs’ route participation jumps again, anchoring him as Maye’s most trusted option against a coverage look built for isolation. So with elite man-beating efficiency, rising field time, and a defense forcing one-on-one matchups, five or more targets feels like the floor, not the goal.

#3 - B. Hall: O 1.5 Receptions

Hall’s usage in the passing game has dipped lately, but this matchup is tailor-made for a rebound. The Patriots allow the most receptions to running backs in the league, a flaw that’s been repeatedly exposed. Bijan Robinson caught eight passes, and De’Von Achane had nine. But the Jets’ offensive rhythm and game flow make this even stronger. They’ve led at halftime just once all season, tied for fewest in the NFL, forcing Maye to lean on checkdowns when drives stall.

Hall remains the most explosive option in space, generating a 10-yard gain on over 15 percent of runs, third-highest among all backs. The Patriots’ elite front, second in fewest yards before contact, squeezes interior running lanes and funnels touches toward quick screens and swing passes. Hall’s receiving role isn’t disappearing; it’s being redirected toward game scripts that reward short-area explosiveness. So in a matchup where the opponent bleeds catches to backs and the Jets constantly trail, two receptions should be automatic. One screen, one checkdown, and this clears easily.

#2 - T. Henderson: O 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

Everything about Henderson’s current workload screams feature back. He’s played on 83.6 percent of snaps and handled 15 touches for 150 total yards with two long touchdown runs last week. Even when the backfield was full the prior week, he logged 75 percent of snaps, showing total trust from the staff. But the recent production is backed by a clear schematic shift. He’s run 27 times off edge or tackle over his last three games, averaging 8.4 yards per carry on those plays, still 6.1 even without the 69-yarder.

Those concepts translate directly to red-zone success. And this week, the Jets defense sets up perfectly for a repeat. They’ve allowed the 29th-most backfield runs per game, the 23rd-most rushing yards to running backs, and three rushing touchdowns just two weeks ago to Cincinnati. They’re consistently in negative scripts, defending short fields and collapsing late. With Rhamondre likely still sidelined, Henderson’s high-leverage share stays intact. So with elite volume, explosive edge efficiency, and a defense that’s recently bled running back touchdowns, this is a strong touchdown spot backed by both role and matchup.

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That’s the list. AFC East games never go as planned. Hit these soft numbers early

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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