MIN @ LAC

Vikings vs. Chargers headline Thursday night, and I’ve found the data edges the market missed… in two minutes or less

#6 - J. Jefferson: O 59.5 Receiving Yards

Jefferson continues to look unstoppable with double-digit targets in three straight and an average of 109 yards per game over that span, reaffirming his role as the engine of this passing offense. His connection with Wentz has unlocked another level, running 41 routes per game, a major spike from his usage under McCarthy. His 25.9 percent target rate against Cover 3 and 4 perfectly aligns with what the Chargers do defensively. But here’s the hidden layer: Los Angeles plays Cover 4 at the second-highest rate and Cover 3 at the eighth-highest, and Jefferson is elite against both, posting an absurd 3.75 yards per route run in those looks, one of the top three marks in the league.

The Chargers have also been carved up by WR1s, ranking 25th in fantasy points allowed to the position over their last five games. So with scheme alignment, elite efficiency, and consistent high-volume usage, this 59.5 projection feels way too low. Expect Jefferson to dominate target share once again and push past this number early.

#5 - J. Addison: O 34.5 Receiving Yards

Addison has evolved from a complementary piece into a volume-driven weapon, averaging 94.3 yards per game over his last three with explosive lines of 4-114, 5-41-1, and 9-128. His workload has surged, running 42.7 routes per game, third most among all receivers, and commanding elite involvement whenever Wentz starts. But the reason this spot stands out is how his skill set matches coverage. Against zone looks, Addison is targeted on 26 percent of routes, nearly two and a half times higher than versus man, and the Chargers play Cover 3 and 4 on over 60 percent of their defensive snaps.

His first-read target share jumped to 39.3 percent last week, showing how much trust he’s earned in this offense. With expanding usage, zone-heavy matchups that boost efficiency, and WR2-level volume inside a pass-first scheme, 34.5 yards feels way too low. Expect Addison to separate underneath and turn high-percentage looks into steady yards all night.

#4 - J. Mason: O 0.5 Total Touchdowns

Mason has quietly become a touchdown machine, scoring four times in his last four games while handling over 70 percent of backfield touches in three straight. He’s not flashy, but he’s reliable and has emerged as the clear red-zone hammer. But this matchup makes that role even more valuable. The Chargers’ run defense has collapsed, allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season and a league-high 40.4 percent of backfield runs to result in first downs or touchdowns over the last three games.

That is a catastrophic success rate that highlights how soft their front has become. They’ve also allowed multiple backs to score two or more times in recent weeks. With Mason dominating goal-line work against a defense ranked near the bottom in run success rate, this anytime touchdown pick feels obvious. His workload and red-zone usage give him multiple paths to find the end zone again.

#3 - L. McConkey: O 34.5 Receiving Yards

McConkey has been steadily ascending into one of the most reliable short-area targets in football. Over the last three games, his target share climbed from 21.9 to 27.8 percent, and he’s seen 25.6 percent of his routes targeted, showing how much trust he’s earned in this offense. But it’s not just volume that matters here, it’s usage under pressure. Minnesota ranks third in pressure rate, forcing opponents into quick passing looks, and McConkey thrives in that role.

He’s generated six end-zone targets in his last three games and averaged 83.5 yards on 12 targets per game across his past two. He runs 61.4 percent of his snaps from the slot, attacking the exact area Minnesota struggles to defend when blitzing. With growing opportunity, a pressure-driven script, and a route tree built for timing and space, 34.5 yards feels like a locked-in floor with upside if Minnesota overcommits to pressure again.

#2 - K. Vidal: O 34.5 Rush Yards

Vidal remains the feature back, logging nearly 65 percent of snaps last week and out-touching Hassan Haskins 13 to 3. He’s proven he can handle a heavy workload, posting a 124-yard performance just two weeks ago. But the real reason this spot stands out is how exploitable Minnesota’s front seven has been. They’ve given up the third-most fantasy points to running backs and recently allowed a 73.7 percent success rate on runs, their worst defensive showing since Week 3.

Vidal’s production spikes when he reaches the second level, averaging 10.6 yards per carry when contacted beyond the line of scrimmage, one of the most efficient rates among backs with similar volume. With Haskins expected out, his share could rise to 70 percent of team rushes, giving him both stability and upside. In a game where volume meets vulnerability, this 34.5-yard projection feels way too low, and Vidal’s downhill running style should take advantage.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. One or two market mistakes will decide Vikings–Chargers, hit them now before the lights come on

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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