MIA @ BUF

The market always slips on a few players, and tomorrow’s Thursday night matchup is no different. Here are my final picks… in two minutes or less.

#6 - J. Allen: O 27.5 Rush Yards

Allen has taken 25.8% OF ALL TEAM RUSHES this year, an 88TH PERCENTILE rate among QBs, and has rushed 20 times for 89 yards through two games. The projections back it up, calling for 7.4 CARRIES this week, the 4TH-MOST of any quarterback on the slate. Buffalo is also expected to run on nearly half their plays, the 5TH-HIGHEST RATE of the week, which should give Allen a solid rushing floor.

Miami’s linebackers do grade as the 4TH-BEST run-stopping unit, but Allen still averaged nearly 10 yards per carry against the Jets last week, another top-tier defense. So with volume and efficiency both pointing up, MORE THAN 27.5 rushing yards is a strong play.

#5 - D. Achane: O 29.5 Receiving Yards

Achane has emerged as Miami’s most consistent receiving back, catching 11 passes for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns through two games and averaging 56 YARDS PER GAME. The breakout came in Week 2 when he turned 10 targets into 92 yards showing how heavily Miami trusts him in the passing game. As 12-point underdogs, the Dolphins are projected to pass on the HIGHEST RATE of plays this week which only boosts his involvement.

His expected target range is in the 7–10 RANGE, giving him a strong volume floor and multiple paths to clearing this projection. So with game script, usage, and efficiency all pointing in the same direction, MORE THAN 29.5 feels like free money.

#4 - T. Hill: U 79.5 Receiving Yards

Tyreek enters Week 3 with Miami projected to pass on the HIGHEST RATE of plays this week, but the Dolphins are also projected to run the FEWEST TOTAL PLAYS on the entire slate (60.7). That means even with a heavy passing script, his total opportunities shrink dramatically. Add to that his 0.0 YARDS AFTER CATCH this season, a shocking fall from last year’s 3.5 per catch, and the explosive plays that usually boost his yardage haven’t been there. Buffalo’s secondary has allowed the 2ND-HIGHEST COMPLETION RATE to WRs since last year, but that hasn’t translated to big YAC, and Miami’s offensive line ranks as the 7TH-WORST in pass protection which raises sack risk and drive killers.

Even in a pass-heavy game script, the combination of low play volume, poor protection, and Tyreek’s lack of after-the-catch efficiency is a recipe for him coming in short. So UNDER 79.5 feels like the sharp side, even if the public expects a bounce-back game.

#3 - J. Cook: O 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

Cook’s workload has been elite, handling 54.8% OF ALL TEAM RUSHES which ranks in the 87TH PERCENTILE among RBs and he’s projected for 14.8 CARRIES this week putting him firmly into feature-back territory. Game environment is the key here with Buffalo favored by 12 POINTS and projected to run on 48.4% OF THEIR PLAYS, the 5TH-HIGHEST clip of the week. Everything points to sustained rushing volume and multiple red-zone trips.

Miami’s run defense has been solid giving up the 10TH-FEWEST ADJUSTED RUSHING YARDS since last year, but this bet isn’t about Cook racking up 100 yards, it’s about finding the end zone once. So with goal-line equity and volume on his side, MORE THAN 0.5 touchdowns feels inevitable.

#2 - M. Prater: O 5.5 Kicking Points

Through two weeks, Matt Prater has been PERFECT, hitting 6 of 6 field goals and all 5 extra points for a total of 23 points and averaging 11.5 POINTS PER GAME, more than double this projection. This week looks even better for kicking opportunities with Buffalo entering as a 12-POINT FAVORITE, projecting them for one of the highest team totals on the slate. Combine that with their expected 5TH-HIGHEST RUN RATE this week and you get a profile that suggests long drives and repeated red-zone visits.

Arizona’s defense has played bend-but-don’t-break football which means Buffalo may stall just enough to bring Prater on for multiple field goals. So with volume, accuracy, and game environment all aligned, MORE THAN 5.5 is the safest kicking play on the board.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Football is officially back, and the fastest way to win is spotting the bad numbers… before everyone else does. 

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe