LV @ DEN

Thursday Night Football is here. Raiders vs. Broncos brings AFC West chaos and plenty of soft numbers to attack… in two minutes or less

#5 - B. Bowers: U 7.5 Receptions

Bowers is coming off a monster game with 12 catches, 127 yards, and 3 touchdowns, with 34% of team targets and nearly half the air yards. He looked unstoppable against Cleveland, but this week’s matchup flips that narrative fast. Denver allows the 2nd lowest catch rate to tight ends (58.7%) and the 6th fewest receptions per game (4.1), funneling passes away from the middle of the field. The Broncos have kept opposing tight ends under 5 catches in 7 of their last 9, including names like Dalton Schultz and Daniel Bellinger, who had success only through efficiency, not volume.

But this isn’t just a coverage issue, it’s a pace and possession problem. Denver ranks top 3 in points allowed per drive (1.55) and leads the NFL in sack differential (+31), keeping opponents off-schedule and forcing checkdowns that rarely pile up catches. Bowers has cleared 7.5 receptions only once all year, and this matchup is tailor-made to pull his volume back to earth. So while his ceiling always draws attention, this number is too rich against one of the league’s stingiest coverage units. Less than 7.5 receptions is the smarter side.

#4 - M. Mayer: O 9.5 Receiving Yards

Mayer’s involvement quietly surged with 7 targets, second on the team, a route on 70% of dropbacks, and heavy use in two-tight-end formations. The Raiders ran 12 personnel on 65.9% of pass plays, the 3rd highest rate in any game this season, signaling a new offensive identity. That trend isn’t random. Jakobi Meyers’ trade vacated 20% of targets, and Mayer’s short-area role becomes the natural fit to soak up that volume.

But the numbers also show a hidden path to efficiency. Denver’s defense has allowed TE1-level production to 3 of their last 6 opponents, including Warren (4-79-0) and Schultz (6-77-0), both thriving from soft spots in zone coverage. Mayer already produced 26 yards in a low-output game last week and benefits from Bowers drawing primary coverage attention. A single leak-out or seam route clears this number easily. So with expanded usage and one of the lowest projections on the slate, more than 9.5 yards feels like a lock.

#3 - T. Franklin: O 0.5 Total Touchdowns

Franklin’s touchdown profile is elite, a 34.3% red-zone target share (5th highest in the NFL), a team-best 7 end-zone targets, and 3 two-point conversion looks that show how central he is near the goal line. He’s scored in 3 of his last 4 games, and the consistency is no fluke, with 10 or more targets in three straight outings that cement him as Denver’s alpha in scoring range.

But the real edge is in the scheme fit. Las Vegas plays Cover-3 on 47% of snaps, the 2nd highest in the league, and Franklin’s usage spikes there with a 24.8% target rate and 2.35 yards per route run, both top marks on the team. His quickness versus zone and feel for spacing make him a nightmare on play-action crossers and deep corners. Denver’s tendency to pull opponents into shootouts only boosts his red-zone volume. So with his red-zone role and a defense he statistically punishes, more than 0.5 total touchdowns is one of the most confident reads on the board.

#2 - C. Sutton: O 14.5 Longest Reception

Sutton’s been automatic for chunk plays, hitting this mark in 8 of 9 games, including a 30-yard touchdown on his lone catch last week. His role stays explosive even when volume dips because of how Denver deploys him. The Raiders are tailor-made for his style, ranking 27th in points allowed to outside receivers and 26th in yards per target, the exact alignment where Sutton plays 83% of his snaps.

But it gets even better when you look at their coverage structure. Las Vegas plays zone on 85% of defensive snaps and Cover-3 at the 2nd highest rate, which creates soft sideline pockets that Sutton exploits with physicality and timing. He’s targeted on 21.3% of routes against that coverage and owns multiple explosive plays in similar setups. Add Denver’s league-best sack differential (+31) giving them extra deep-shot chances, and the case builds itself. So one well-timed go route or post makes more than 14.5 longest reception feel like an auto hit.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. AFC West battles get wild, and the edge is hitting these soft numbers early

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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