LAR @ SEA

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#5 - J. Smith-Njigba: O 93.5 Rec Yards

Smith-Njigba isn’t just hot, he’s functioning as the most concentrated WR role in football, and this matchup keeps the ceiling intact.

• Leads the NFL with a 34.9% target share (1st) and 47.7% air yards share (1st)
• Averaging 110 receiving yards per game (1st) with nine 100-yard games, the most in the league
• Rams allow the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs, and Smith-Njigba already went 9-for-105 on 12 targets vs them in Week 11

With elite volume plus a defense bleeding WR yardage, this projection is way-too-low.

#4 - S. Darnold: O 0.5 Int

Darnold’s volatility has defined his season, and this matchup directly attacks his biggest weaknesses.

• Thrown 11 interceptions (4th-most) in the NFL
• Rams rank with the 6th-most interceptions forced this season
• In Week 11 vs LA, Darnold threw four interceptions and finished as the QB30

When a turnover-prone QB faces a defense that already broke him once, one interception feels inevitable. But my #1 pick on this slate is a star player facing a matchup that limits efficiency more than most people realize.

#3 - K. Williams: U 55.5 Rush Yards

Williams is still productive overall, but the rushing setup quietly works against him in this spot.

• Seattle allows the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs
• Seahawks give up the fewest yards per carry (3.6) to running backs
• Williams has logged his two lowest snap shares of the season, and totaled just 15 yards after Q1 vs Seattle in Week 11

With volume trending down and efficiency capped, this rushing number is too-high.

#2 - P. Nacua: O 7.5 Receptions

Nacua’s role has consolidated into true alpha usage, and the catch volume keeps stacking.

• Targeted on 43.9% of routes with Adams off the field, one of the highest rates in the NFL
• Posted 348 receiving yards over the last two games, showing sustained involvement
• Caught 7 of 8 targets vs Seattle in Week 11 on just 21 routes, with route participation rising since

When one receiver owns this much of the passing game, eight catches is a reasonable expectation.

#1 - M. Stafford: U 235.5 Pass Yards

Stafford’s season totals look strong, but this matchup consistently drags efficiency and volume down.

• Threw for just 130 yards vs Seattle in Week 11, his lowest output of the season
• Seahawks allow a league-low yards per pass attempt over their last nine games
• Seattle also gives up the fewest yards per pass attempt without pressure, removing easy production

With efficiency capped and volume suppressed, this passing number is simply too-high.

That’s the list. Rams vs. Seahawks always turns into a battle of adjustments, and the edge is locking in these numbers early

-Joe

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