DAL @ PHI

Every primetime game, the market misprices a few guys. Tonight’s TNF matchup is no different. Here are 5 players I’m in or out on... in two minutes or less.

#5 - J. Hurts: O 29.5 Rushing Yards

Hurts has consistently punished Dallas with his legs, and nothing in this matchup suggests that will change. In his last game against the Cowboys, he ran for 56 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, showing just how dangerous he is when he decides to take off. Dallas also allowed the MOST rushing yards to quarterbacks in the NFL last season, and they come into 2025 weaker up front after trading Micah Parsons.

That single move drops their pressure rate from a TOP-5 defense down to middle of the pack, cutting their ability to collapse the pocket and contain Hurts. But when pressure doesn’t get home, Hurts doesn’t just scramble—he creates explosive runs that flip the game. So with Dallas missing their best spy defender and Hurts’ rushing volume proven in this exact matchup, 30 yards on the ground is an EASY number for him to crush.

#4 - D. Prescott: O 33.5 Passing Attempts

Everything about this matchup screams volume for Prescott. The Eagles forced opponents to abandon the run more than ANY OTHER defense in 2024, funnelling teams into the pass just to move the ball. That’s already a strong signal, but it matches up with how Dallas is built. Schottenheimer’s offenses have ranked 4TH, 9TH, and 10TH in dropbacks the past three years, and this roster is now leaning even harder on Prescott to carry them through the air.

But the game script is what makes this projection so strong—Dallas enters as a HEAVY road underdog against a Philly team that crushed them twice last season. That combination of scheme and situation leaves little doubt. So with Dallas’ run game stuck against one of the league’s toughest fronts, Prescott clearing 34 attempts feels like one of the SAFEST spots on the board.

#3 - C. Lamb: O 5.5 Receptions

This number is all about volume, and the matchup sets up perfectly for Lamb to get fed. The Eagles forced opponents into the HIGHEST pass rate in the NFL last season, completely taking away the run and forcing quarterbacks to put it in the air. Dak Prescott only faced Philly once last year, but Lamb still drew 10 targets in that game despite playing with weaker quarterback play.

But now the Cowboys are a HEAVY underdog, and with Brian Schottenheimer calling plays, this offense has ranked inside the TOP-10 in dropbacks for three straight seasons. That’s not a small sample—it’s a structural commitment to volume. So with Dallas expected to chase points, Philly missing key corners from last year, and Lamb locked in as the true alpha, 6.5 receptions feels not just reachable but a STRONG FAVORITE to clear.

#2 - G. Pickens: U 59.5 Rec Yards

Pickens’ entire game is built on the deep ball—28% of his career targets have come 20+ yards downfield, the HIGHEST rate among all wide receivers. That’s normally his strength, but it runs straight into the teeth of this Eagles defense. Under Vic Fangio, Philly allowed the 2ND-LOWEST completion rate on throws 20+ yards downfield last year and gave up the FEWEST explosive pass plays in the entire league at just 6.0%.

That’s the exact blueprint designed to erase receivers like Pickens who rely on chunk plays to hit their numbers. But when a wideout can’t supplement with underneath volume, the floor falls out quickly, and this projection demands splash plays to survive. So unless Pickens fundamentally changes how he wins routes, 59.5 is WAY TOO HIGH in a matchup this hostile to vertical passing.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. If you want an edge, it starts with finding players the market has wrong… and attacking them before the line moves.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe