DAL @ DET

Thursday Night Football is here. Cowboys vs. Lions brings two top-five offenses to prime time, and I’ve found the numbers the market slipped on… in two minutes or less

#6 - J. Goff: O 219.5 Pass Yards

Goff has averaged 279 passing yards over his last five games and posted 9.8 yards per attempt in Week 13 despite losing LaPorta and St. Brown. The Cowboys allow the most passing yards in the NFL this season, giving up 289 to Hurts and 315 to Mahomes in back-to-back weeks while allowing the highest passing fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (19.6). Goff has also averaged 271.3 yards per game in six career meetings with Dallas, including 315 the last time they met. In a dome environment and against a defense that continues to bleed explosive plays, Goff should again clear this number comfortably.

#5 - J. Williams: O 49.5 Receiving Yards

Williams erupted on Thanksgiving with 144 yards on seven receptions and a career-high 37 percent target share after St. Brown was injured. The Cowboys have allowed the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season and were just beaten by A. J. Brown (8-110-1) and Rashee Rice (8-92-2). Williams produced 104 yards on throws between 11 and 19 air yards, the exact range where Dallas has struggled. With Detroit expected to lean on him again and the Cowboys ranking bottom-three in WR yardage allowed, this projection looks too low for his expanded role.

#4 - D. Prescott: O 1.5 Pass TDs

Prescott has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven of his last nine games and exceeded 300 yards in back-to-back matchups with the Chiefs and Eagles. The Lions have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns and a 6.9 percent touchdown rate over their last eight games (31st in the league). They’ve given up QB1 and QB2 finishes in consecutive weeks while surrendering 17.1 yards per completion, the highest figure in football. Detroit plays man coverage on 40.8 percent of dropbacks, and Prescott ranks sixth in yards per attempt (8.0) and ninth in completion rate (59.8) against man. With his current form and Detroit’s coverage issues, two scores feel likely again.

#3 - G. Pickens: O 0.5 Total TDs

Pickens ranks third in the NFL with eight receiving touchdowns and continues to excel against man coverage. The Lions have allowed the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers and have given up at least one WR score in six straight games. He is targeted on 35.3 percent of routes against man, and Detroit uses man coverage on 40 percent of snaps. They also play single-high looks on 61.4 percent of snaps, third most in the league, a coverage that feeds Pickens’ vertical style. Given his role and Detroit’s tendencies, another touchdown would fit the pattern.

#2 - C. Lamb: O 4.5 Receptions

Lamb is averaging 10.1 targets per game this season when healthy and owns a 27.8 percent target share and 40.3 percent air-yard share since returning. Detroit runs man coverage on a league-high 40 percent of dropbacks, and Lamb is targeted on 34 percent of routes for 3.13 yards per route run against man. Wide receivers have accounted for 55.9 percent of fantasy points allowed by Detroit, the highest share in the NFL. With usage this steady and a coverage scheme that funnels looks to the top option, Lamb should again finish well above this mark.

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That’s the list. Cowboys vs. Lions could turn into a shootout, so grab these edges before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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