BUF @ HOU

The lights are on in Houston. Bills vs. Texans is loaded with speed, firepower, and hidden value, here are the plays that stand out… in two minutes or less

#5 - J. Allen: U 249.5 Pass Yards

Josh Allen just exploded for 317 yards and six total touchdowns, reminding everyone of his Super Josh ceiling. But this week’s setup is a complete reversal. HOUSTON RANKS 3RD-FEWEST in passing yards allowed and limits quarterbacks to a 57.6 percent completion rate and 6.1 yards per attempt, both 2ND-BEST in the league. Every opposing quarterback has finished outside the top twelve this season, with zero true ceiling games. When Allen faced this same defense last year, he completed only nine of thirty throws for 131 yards, his worst passing game ever.

Houston’s secondary forces everything underneath, squeezes windows, and disguises coverage at an elite level. But that same structure that suffocated him before still defines their identity and their defensive metrics have actually improved. So unless Allen generates a lot with his legs, you should expect a shorter passing plan built around dump-offs and checkdowns, and this projection for his passing yards feels WAY TOO HIGH against a defense that is TOP THREE in nearly every efficiency metric.

#4 - N. Collins: O 49.5 Receiving Yards

Nico Collins has rediscovered alpha form, catching nine of ten targets for 92 yards and a score last week. Over the last two games, he has averaged 114 yards and commands a 28 percent target share, his fourth straight week with double-digit looks. His chemistry with Davis Mills is real and the Texans have rebuilt the passing tree around him as a true WR1.

But Buffalo’s secondary has been carved up by lead receivers, allowing the MOST yards per game to WR1s and the 3RD-MOST receptions to them over their last five games. Every opponent’s top option has feasted on this defense, especially on the intermediate routes where Collins wins most often. So with Houston’s quarterback peppering him on roughly one of every three throws and the Bills ranking as one of the softest WR1 matchups in football, this projection is not just low, it is BROKEN, and Collins should CRUSH 50 receiving yards again without much resistance.

#3 - W. Marks: O 44.5 Rush Yards

Woody Marks has quietly become a volume machine, playing around 65 percent of snaps and handling 83 percent of backfield touches, including every carry inside the five. That kind of usage makes him almost game script proof.

But Buffalo’s defense is bleeding on the ground, allowing the 2ND-MOST rushing yards to running backs, a league high 5.4 yards per carry which is 2ND-WORST in the league, and an NFL leading 14 rushing touchdowns. They have been gashed in three of their last four games, surrendering a ridiculous 3.95 yards after contact per rush, WORST IN THE NFL, which means backs are not just finding lanes, they are running through defenders. So with Marks owning every meaningful carry and the Bills’ front seven struggling to tackle, this projection feels like a gift. You should expect a steady diet of early down and inside runs that push him well past 45 rushing yards as he punishes one of the most inefficient run defenses in football.

#2 - K. Shakir: O 3.5 Receptions

Khalil Shakir’s box score fell flat last week, but the underlying usage never really changed. He still ran routes on nearly 70 percent of dropbacks and lines up in the slot about 65 percent of the time, which is exactly where Houston’s coverage breaks down. Before that quiet game, he averaged almost seven receptions per outing over a three week stretch as Josh Allen’s go to option on short and intermediate routes.

But the Texans rank as one of the weakest slot defenses in the league, allowing the 5TH-HIGHEST rate of receptions from the slot and a 17TH-WORST yards per target to those receivers. That is the exact area Buffalo attacks when the deep ball is not there. So you should expect Allen to lean back on his most reliable underneath option early and often, and in this spot four receptions looks more like a baseline than a ceiling, giving Shakir a very clear path to go MORE THAN 3.5 catches.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Bills vs. Texans could turn into a shootout, and the edge is grabbing these numbers before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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