BAL @ MIA

Thursday Night Football is here. Ravens vs. Dolphins brings elite speed, big plays, and plenty of soft numbers to attack… in two minutes or less

#6 - L. Jackson: U 28.5 Pass Attempts

Miami’s defense forces a very specific game script: slow, controlled, and run-heavy. They allow the 7th fewest pass attempts per game in the league and keep opposing quarterbacks under 31 dropbacks on average. That matters here because Lamar has cleared 28.5 attempts just once all season, and even in his highest-volume outing, he barely reached 29. Baltimore’s entire offense is built on efficiency through balance, ranking top five in rush rate when playing with a lead, and they don’t abandon that identity even in tighter contests. When they can dictate tempo, they lean on Henry and the run game to chew clock and keep Lamar efficient, not high-volume.

But what makes this matchup stand out is how Miami’s structure enhances that control. The Dolphins blitz at the fifth highest rate in the NFL but generate pressure only 22nd best, forcing shorter, lower-risk passes and limiting sustained drives. That defensive inconsistency doesn’t increase attempts, it reduces them, funneling Baltimore into a conservative rhythm where possessions stay brief and controlled. While Lamar’s efficiency can still shine, the environment doesn’t demand volume. This game profiles as a run-dominant script from start to finish, and the odds of Jackson exceeding 28.5 throws are minimal.

#5 - De'Von Achane: O 49.5 Rushing Yards

Few backs are better suited for this matchup than Achane. Baltimore’s defense has struggled to contain dynamic runners, allowing the 10th most rushing yards per game and the 4th most fantasy points to the position. Achane’s speed and burst are the exact kind of traits that punish that vulnerability, and Miami clearly trusts him in that role. He logged a season-high 23 touches last week, solidifying a true workhorse status. Even in less efficient outings, his floor remains strong. He’s cleared this projection in three straight games, averaging over 90 rushing yards while continuing to see heavy early-down usage.

What separates this spot is how perfectly Achane’s skill set aligns with Baltimore’s weaknesses. The Ravens have surrendered 10.2 receiving points per game to running backs, showing they struggle to defend explosive dual-threats. That’s exactly how Miami uses him through motion, misdirection, and open-field spacing that create opportunities on the ground and through the air. With usage peaking and Baltimore’s front seven unable to contain versatile runners, 49.5 feels far too low for a player with this much volume and efficiency. This is the kind of matchup where he can hit early and never look back.

#4 - Z. Flowers: O 59.5 Receiving Yards

Flowers has been one of the most consistent wideouts in football this season, clearing this projection in six of his last seven games while averaging just under 70 yards per outing. His chemistry with Lamar Jackson drives that stability. When Lamar plays, Flowers becomes the focal point of the passing attack, drawing heavy usage and delivering efficiency few WR1s match. Against man coverage, he owns a 33.3 percent target share and averages an elite 3.09 yards per route run, meaning he doesn’t just see volume, he creates big plays from it. He’s developed into a coverage-proof WR1 who thrives against single coverage looks, and Baltimore has fully embraced that versatility.

This week’s matchup adds another layer of advantage. Miami is a bottom-five defense against WR1s, allowing 9.6 yards per target and an eight percent touchdown rate to lead receivers. Their coverage philosophy, with man coverage on 26.4 percent of snaps and frequent blitzing, forces corners into isolation against explosive route runners. That’s where Flowers shines. He’s at his best when the defense challenges him vertically or one-on-one, and the Dolphins give him that window repeatedly. With Lamar back, the scheme aligning perfectly, and recent form elite, this number looks like one he’ll clear comfortably.

#3 - M. Andrews: O 2.5 Receptions

This projection almost feels like a typo given the defensive matchup. The Dolphins allow the third highest share of receptions to tight ends in the league, and nearly one-third of all completions they surrender go to the position. They also give up an 83.3 percent completion rate and 8.5 yards per target to tight ends, showing both volume and efficiency leak through the middle of the field. Even though Isaiah Likely has rotated into the mix, Andrews remains Lamar’s trusted option when Baltimore needs chain-moving reliability or red-zone leverage. With 25 percent of the team’s red-zone targets, he’s still the heartbeat of the short passing game.

What really locks this in is Miami’s structural flaw: they can’t defend the seam. Their zone shell opens space between the linebackers and safeties, and their tackling efficiency against tight ends ranks near the bottom of the league. That combination gives Andrews multiple ways to hit three catches quickly, whether through play-action drags, red-zone checkdowns, or seam hooks. While the number feels cautious, the data says otherwise. Against a defense this soft in coverage, three receptions is the floor, and Andrews should see plenty of high-efficiency looks throughout the night.

#2 - Jaylen Waddle: O 4.5 Receptions

Without Tyreek Hill, Waddle has become Miami’s offensive centerpiece. Over the past month, he’s earned a 22.3 percent target share and a league-leading 53 percent air-yard share, meaning over half of Miami’s deep passing production runs through him. His efficiency hasn’t dropped, either. He’s producing 2.85 yards per route run, which ranks fourth among all receivers, and has topped 95 yards in three of his last four games. That shows his ceiling travels week to week. What makes him dangerous is how he blends volume and explosiveness; he can rack up catches in short areas or flip a game with one vertical shot.

This matchup amplifies that advantage even further. Baltimore has allowed the third most receptions to wide receivers this season and ranks 23rd against WR1 targets, giving up nine yards per target to top options. That’s a glaring weakness against someone with Waddle’s speed and separation. Miami designs its passing rhythm around his ability to find soft zones and exploit mismatches, and with the Ravens allowing high catch rates across the field, this becomes a high-floor opportunity. Even modest game flow puts him in line for five or more receptions easily. This is a volume-based play that aligns perfectly with how Baltimore defends.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Ravens–Dolphins could turn into a track meet, lock in these edges before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. You can get $100 after playing just $5 on UNDERDOG if you sign up using code HOLKA9