ATL @ TB

Thursday Night Football is here. Falcons vs. Buccaneers looks like a coin flip, but the matchup data points to a few clear edges… in two minutes or less

#5 - B. Robinson: O 19.5 Rec Yards

Tampa’s defense stops the run but can’t contain running backs in space, and Bijan already torched them earlier this year.

• 6 catches for 100 yards and a TD vs Tampa in Week 1, the best receiving game of his season
• Bucs allow the most receiving yards to RBs in the NFL (54 per game), ranking 32nd league wide
• Their front ranks 2nd in run success rate (67.5%) and 4th-best vs outside zone (74.6%), forcing Atlanta to throw underneath

They can stuff his carries, but they can’t stop his burst in the flats. 19.5 receiving yards is a clear over.

#4 - K. Pitts: O 5.5 Targets

With Drake London sidelined, Pitts has become the center of the Falcons’ passing plan, and the numbers confirm he’s in elite volume territory.

• Owns a 25%–35% target share in London’s absence, including 10 targets last week
• Targeted on 25.5% of routes (1st among TEs) while producing 2.0 yards per route run (top 3)
• Tampa allows the 8th-most yards per target to tight ends and the 25th-highest TD rate (6.4%), making it a coverage funnel

He’s the one weapon keeping this passing game afloat. But my #1 pick doesn’t have much more to go in the passing game, and that could stall the offense.

#3 - B. Mayfield: O 9.5 Rush Yards

Mayfield’s arm has cooled off, but his legs are heating up, and Atlanta’s pressure-heavy scheme is tailor made to push him into scramble mode.

• Cleared this number in 4 straight, averaging 32 rush yards per game, including 39 vs Atlanta in Week 1
• Falcons blitz at the 2nd-highest rate (36.6%), while Mayfield completes just 50% of passes vs blitz (4.7 YPA) over the last 7 weeks
• Recorded 6 carries for 42 yards last week, extending a streak of adding 2.7–9.9 rushing fantasy points in four straight games

The more pressure Atlanta brings, the more Mayfield runs. 9.5 rush yards is a gift.

#2 - B. Irving: O 9.5 Rec Yards

Irving’s rushing efficiency has been bottom tier, but his receiving usage has quietly turned into elite volume for a running back in this matchup.

• Averaging 46.2 receiving yards over his last 5 games, clearing this number in 4 of 5 while running routes on 50% of dropbacks last week (up from 33%)
• Atlanta allows the 10th-most targets to running backs, creating natural checkdown lanes for short, high-percentage throws
• Even while ranking last in success rate (25.2%) and 40th in YPC (3.4), he’s logged 17+ touches in every game, keeping his role consistent regardless of game flow

Atlanta’s defense stops runs but leaks receptions, exactly where Irving wins. 9.5 receiving yards is simply too low.

My #1 Pick for Falcons vs Buccaneers

This is the clearest edge in the game and the most likely number to move. It’s preloaded and ready.

👉Tap HERE to open the Gambly slip and lock it in

That’s the list. Thursday night divisional games always get weird, lock in the soft spots early

-Joe

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