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- ✅ 🏈 TNF $10 to $10,000 + Any-Time TD picks
TNF $10 to $10,000 + Any-Time TD picks
Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.
Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.
By the way… probably the most common question I get is:
“What tools do you recommend?”
The easy answer for me is my process starts and ends with EV Analytics, so I want to thank them for sponsoring today’s newsletter 👇
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Welcome to our first-ever Underdog STREAK 🔥🔥🔥 Check IG for more details.
#1
👇 P. Mahomes: O 269.5 pass yards |
Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Yes I know we took this yesterday at 263.5 but I still love it. In the AFC championship game, Patrick Mahomes started a perfect 10-for-10 averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. My model is expecting the Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team overall this week, projecting a 65.1% pass rate—that’s close to 40 attempts for Mahomes. The Ravens defense? They’re bringing back a nearly intact squad from last year. But with a new defensive coordinator at the helm, they're in for an immediate challenge.
#2
👇 L. Jackson: O 49.5 rush yards |
Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Another one to highlight that has still has not moved enough to ignore getting down more action. Now…It's no secret Lamar Jackson has had his struggles passing against the Chiefs, and you can point to Steve Spagnuolo for that. The Chiefs’ defensive coordinator loves the blitz, dialing it up at a 38.6% rate in his 4 games against Lamar—well above their usual. But here’s the twist: Lamar has absolutely gashed them on the ground, averaging 72.5 rushing yards in those matchups. So, with his rushing projection set at just 49.5 yards, this number still feels way too low.
Turn $50 into $5,300 with this any-time touchdown Week 1 lay…
- Leg 1: Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions will use Gibbs in both the run and pass games in this week's highest-scoring game.
- Leg 2 in the same game: Kyren Williams. His 5.8% TD rate was the 3rd-highest in the NFL last year, and the Rams will score 3-4 times in this game.
- Leg 3: Jalen Hurts. He had 29.3% of the Eagles' rushing attempts last season, and the Packers' defense gave up the 4th-most rushing yards to QBs.
- Leg 4: Tyreek Hill against a Jaguars defense that allowed the 5th-most TDs to WRs last year. This one is legit free.
- Leg 5: Devon Achane. The Dolphins are about to go nuts... there will be plenty of touchdowns to go around. No one had more fantasy points per opportunity than Achane last year.
- Leg 6: Bijan Robinson. The Falcons will play fast, and Bijan will be much more involved this year... plus the Steelers' allowed the 6th-most receiving TDs to running backs last year.
- Leg 7: Joe Mixon. The Colts allowed the 3rd-most rushing TDs to RBs and the Texans are projected to score the 4th-most points in Week 1.
What did you think of today's picks? |